Language:English
Al-Fayha v Al-Hilal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Fayha (Local)
Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV +21.59%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.389%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.07%9.38%9.29%11.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.4210.6510.0013.0011.88%9.39%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hilal (Visit)
Prediction 76.21%1.31fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -11.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.19%76.19%76.20%78.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2788.50%84.22%84.03%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.44%6.93fair odd
EV +12.92%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.245%
assuming max odds 7.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.37%14.43%14.51%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.376.407.8220.00%15.71%15.63%12.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 9.35%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 76.21%; Draw: 14.44%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +21.59%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.389% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.57%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +21.59%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.389% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.57%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +21.59%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.389% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.57%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV +16.92%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.249% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -2.53%E -0.376%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV +16.92%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.249% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -2.53%E -0.376%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV +16.92%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.249% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -2.53%E -0.376%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV +16.92%E +1.35%K +1.47%G +0.249% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.49%EV -11.60%E -10.00%K -72.50%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -9.31%E -7.83%K -49.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -11.60%E -10.00%K -72.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.55%EV -13.12%E -11.51%K -93.74%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.99%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.36%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.16%EV -13.89%E -12.29%K -106.81%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.48%EV -11.92%E -1.95%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.15I 8.97%NM 8.48%EV +4.29%E +0.385%K +0.423%G +0.018% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.77%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 7.41I 13.50%NM 12.76%EV +7.00%E +0.944%K +1.09%G +0.076% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.89%E +0.262%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV +1.08%E +0.154%K +0.179%G +0.002% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.21%EV +2.89%E +0.262%K +0.289%G +0.008% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.89%EV -11.60%E -10.00%K -72.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.79%E -0.171%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.74%E -3.79%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.74%E -3.79%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.26%E -5.09%K -27.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.03%E -5.76%K -31.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.63%EV -9.31%E -7.83%K -49.02%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.25%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-21 17:47 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.93%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.06%EV -7.59%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -13.12%E -11.51%K -93.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -6.14%E -0.945%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.01%EV -9.31%E -7.83%K -49.02%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -9.75%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -10.84%E -9.26%K -63.75%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.29%EV -9.75%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -11.14%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -27.80%E -5.56%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -13.36%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -8.55%E -7.13%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -20.58%E -3.74%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.42I 11.88%NM 11.49%EV -21.25%E -2.52%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.15%EV -3.22%E -2.53%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 7.82I 12.79%NM 12.37%EV +12.92%E +1.65%K +1.89%G +0.245% | 3.4% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.35% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.05% | 1.2% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.58% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.10% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.32% | 1.5% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.86% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.85% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77% | 2.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.46% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.07% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.47% | 2.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |