Language:English
Al-Ahli v Al-Fateh
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ahli (Local)
Prediction 75.89%1.32fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -4.11%
Kelly -20.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.90%75.57%75.96%79.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.201.201.2585.47%83.13%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Fateh (Visit)
Prediction 9.22%10.85fair odd
EV +10.63%
Edge +0.886%
Kelly +0.966%
Growth +0.103%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.11%9.41%9.11%11.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7510.0710.0012.0012.90%9.93%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.89%6.72fair odd
EV +13.16%
Edge +1.73%
Kelly +1.99%
Growth +0.262%
assuming max odds 7.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.80%15.02%14.94%17.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.986.007.6020.00%16.71%16.67%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 75.89%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 9.22%; Draw: 14.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.09%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.11%EV +10.63%E +0.886%K +0.966%G +0.103% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.80%EV +13.16%E +1.73%K +1.99%G +0.262% | 2.8% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.62%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 11.29I 8.86%NM 8.39%EV +4.08%E +0.362%K +0.397%G +0.016% | 6.77I 14.77%NM 13.99%EV +0.797%E +0.118%K +0.138%G +0.001% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -12.42%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.63%EV -9.69%E -8.14%K -50.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.25%EV -4.71%E -0.736%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.22%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -6.94%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -7.69%E -1.24%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.34%EV -5.89%E -4.75%K -24.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -21.64%E -2.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -15.13%E -2.66%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.42%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -16.62%E -2.97%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.90%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.41%EV -28.55%E -3.68%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.69%EV -21.09%E -3.98%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -25.56%E -5.11%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.59% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.88% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23% | 3.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |