La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Al-Ahli v Al-Fateh
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Al-Ahli (Local)
Predicción 75.89%1.32momio equitativo
EV -5.13%
Ventaja -4.11%
Kelly -20.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.90%75.57%75.96%79.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.171.201.201.2585.47%83.13%83.33%80.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Al-Fateh (Visitante)
Predicción 9.22%10.85momio equitativo
EV +10.63%
Ventaja +0.886%
Kelly +0.966%
Crecimiento +0.103%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.11%9.41%9.11%11.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.7510.0710.0012.0012.90%9.93%10.00%8.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 14.89%6.72momio equitativo
EV +13.16%
Ventaja +1.73%
Kelly +1.99%
Crecimiento +0.262%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.80%15.02%14.94%17.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.986.007.6020.00%16.71%16.67%13.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.09%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.11%EV +10.63%E +0.886%K +0.966%G +0.103% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.80%EV +13.16%E +1.73%K +1.99%G +0.262% | 2.8% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.62%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 11.29I 8.86%NM 8.39%EV +4.08%E +0.362%K +0.397%G +0.016% | 6.77I 14.77%NM 13.99%EV +0.797%E +0.118%K +0.138%G +0.001% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Coral | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -12.42%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.63%EV -9.69%E -8.14%K -50.99%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.25%EV -4.71%E -0.736%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.22%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -6.94%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -7.69%E -1.24%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| betfred_uk | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| 888sport | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| William Hill | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-06 17:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.34%EV -5.89%E -4.75%K -24.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -21.64%E -2.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -15.13%E -2.66%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.42%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -16.62%E -2.97%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.90%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.41%EV -28.55%E -3.68%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.69%EV -21.09%E -3.98%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -25.56%E -5.11%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.59% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.88% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23% | 3.4% | 2026-05-06 18:00 |