A Escola das Odds

Al-Ahli v Al-Fateh

Início: 2026-05-06 18:02 UTC

Final: Al-Ahli 3–1 Al-Fateh

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

31 casas de apostas (7 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Al-Ahli (Local)

Previsão 75.89%1.32odd justa
EV -5.13%
Vantagem -4.11%
Kelly -20.54%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
71.90%75.57%75.96%79.09%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.171.201.201.2585.47%83.13%83.33%80.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Al-Fateh (Visitante)

Previsão 9.22%10.85odd justa
EV +10.63%
Vantagem +0.886%
Kelly +0.966%
Crescimento +0.103%

pressupondo odds máximas de 12.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
8.11%9.41%9.11%11.41%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
7.7510.0710.0012.0012.90%9.93%10.00%8.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 14.89%6.72odd justa
EV +13.16%
Vantagem +1.73%
Kelly +1.99%
Crescimento +0.262%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.80%15.02%14.94%17.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.005.986.007.6020.00%16.71%16.67%13.16%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (31 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
1xBet1.23I 81.30%NM 79.09%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.11%EV +10.63%E +0.886%K +0.966%G +0.103%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.80%EV +13.16%E +1.73%K +1.99%G +0.262%2.8%2026-05-06 17:59
Pinnacle1.22I 81.97%NM 77.62%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000%11.29I 8.86%NM 8.39%EV +4.08%E +0.362%K +0.397%G +0.016%6.77I 14.77%NM 13.99%EV +0.797%E +0.118%K +0.138%G +0.001%5.6%2026-05-06 17:59
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.54%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -12.42%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.22%E -0.496%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 18:00
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 76.63%EV -9.69%E -8.14%K -50.99%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.25%EV -4.71%E -0.736%K -0.873%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 18:00
Unibet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.22%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -6.94%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 17:59
Tipico (DE)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -7.69%E -1.24%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 18:00
Unibet (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 18:00
betfred_uk1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.41%E -6.08%K -33.69%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-06 17:59
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-06 18:00
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-06 18:00
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-06 17:59
William Hill1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-06 18:00
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-06 17:59
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-06 17:59
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -10.67%E -1.78%K -2.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 18:00
Unibet1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
Unibet (NL)1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
Grosvenor1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
Unibet (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
Svenska Spel1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
ATG (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 75.54%EV -8.17%E -6.75%K -38.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 18:00
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33%NM 75.69%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -3.20%E -0.305%K -0.337%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.66%EV -13.64%E -2.35%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 18:00
Sky Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -17.03%E -1.89%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 18:00
LiveScore Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 18:00
Virgin Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 75.57%EV -10.45%E -8.85%K -58.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.39%E -2.50%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 18:00
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.34%EV -5.89%E -4.75%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -21.64%E -2.55%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.96%EV -15.13%E -2.66%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 18:00
PMU (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 75.42%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -16.62%E -2.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-06 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 71.90%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.92%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.41%EV -28.55%E -3.68%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.69%EV -21.09%E -3.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 74.02%EV -11.21%E -9.58%K -65.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -7.81%E -0.781%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.32%EV -25.56%E -5.11%K -6.39%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-06 18:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-05-06 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.25I 80.00%NM 79.05%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%1.2%2026-05-06 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 79.59%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.88%2.2%2026-05-06 18:00
Smarkets1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23%3.4%2026-05-06 18:00