Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Nacional

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:32 UTC

Final: Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 58.46%1.71fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.37%58.46%58.35%60.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.611.6866.67%62.37%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nacional (Visit)

Prediction 17.61%5.68fair odd
EV +3.92%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +0.800%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.70%17.54%17.73%19.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.205.225.9021.28%19.24%19.14%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.07%24.00%23.92%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.803.794.1028.17%26.32%26.39%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 58.46%; Nacional (Visit): 17.61%; Draw: 23.93%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -10.56%E -6.90%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV +3.92%E +0.664%K +0.800%G +0.031%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -1.90%E -0.462%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -1.90%E -0.462%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.76%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV +0.398%E +0.070%K +0.085%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.12%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.97%EV +0.045%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.91%EV -3.57%E -0.886%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 14:00
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.48%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.92%EV -1.36%E -0.244%K -0.296%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:25
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.21%EV -7.05%E -4.43%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.96%EV -2.24%E -0.404%K -0.493%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 14:05
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 14:25
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -12.66%E -3.47%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:25
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:23
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -4.89%E -0.905%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -13.86%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -4.89%E -0.905%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -13.86%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.02%EV -7.64%E -4.83%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.77%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.25%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -6.65%E -1.25%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 14:24
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.18%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 13:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:05
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.13%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.64%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.05%EV -9.55%E -2.53%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 14:14
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -12.31%E -8.21%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.14%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 14:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 14:15
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 14:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.33%EV -9.97%E -6.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.96%6.25I 16.00%NM 16.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 24.01%-0.1%2026-08-23 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-08-23 14:25