Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Vitória SC v Nacional

Início: 2026-08-23 14:32 UTC

Final: Vitória SC 1–0 Nacional

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Vitória SC (Local)

Previsão 58.46%1.71odd justa
EV -1.79%
Vantagem -1.07%
Kelly -2.63%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.68

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
55.37%58.46%58.35%60.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.501.601.611.6866.67%62.37%62.11%59.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nacional (Visitante)

Previsão 17.61%5.68odd justa
EV +3.92%
Vantagem +0.664%
Kelly +0.800%
Crescimento +0.031%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.70%17.54%17.73%19.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.705.205.225.9021.28%19.24%19.14%16.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.93%4.18odd justa
EV -1.90%
Vantagem -0.462%
Kelly -0.611%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.07%24.00%23.92%25.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.553.803.794.1028.17%26.32%26.39%24.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Vitória SC (Local): 58.46%; Nacional (Visitante): 17.61%; Empate: 23.93%. Para Nacional (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.68. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.90, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.92%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.55%EV -10.56%E -6.90%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV +3.92%E +0.664%K +0.800%G +0.031%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -1.90%E -0.462%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -1.90%E -0.462%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:25
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.76%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +2.16%E +0.372%K +0.450%G +0.010%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV +0.398%E +0.070%K +0.085%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.12%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.97%EV +0.045%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.91%EV -3.57%E -0.886%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 14:00
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.48%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.92%EV -1.36%E -0.244%K -0.296%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:25
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.21%EV -7.05%E -4.43%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.96%EV -2.24%E -0.404%K -0.493%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 14:05
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 14:25
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -12.66%E -3.47%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 14:25
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -3.13%E -0.568%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:23
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -4.89%E -0.905%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -13.86%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -4.89%E -0.905%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -13.86%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.02%EV -7.64%E -4.83%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.77%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.25%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -6.65%E -1.25%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 14:24
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.18%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 13:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:05
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.13%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.64%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -7.53%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.05%EV -9.55%E -2.53%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 14:14
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.68%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -12.31%E -8.21%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.14%EV -8.41%E -1.62%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -1.79%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -4.29%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 14:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 14:15
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -5.88%E -3.65%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:15
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -6.47%E -4.04%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.58%EV -8.80%E -5.64%K -15.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -5.48%E -1.39%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.22%E -5.24%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 14:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -9.39%E -6.06%K -17.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -10.27%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.33%EV -9.97%E -6.48%K -18.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -7.88%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -4.71%E -2.89%K -7.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%EV -5.30%E -3.27%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -17.22%E -3.66%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.34%EV -15.06%E -4.24%K -5.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 14:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.96%6.25I 16.00%NM 16.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 24.01%-0.1%2026-08-23 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.42%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-23 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.38%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-08-23 14:25