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Vitória SC v Casa Pia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vitória SC (Local)
Prediction 52.58%1.90fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.24%52.60%52.42%54.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.751.8560.24%56.67%56.98%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Casa Pia (Visit)
Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV +0.490%
Edge +0.110%
Kelly +0.141%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.70%22.49%22.55%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.084.084.4728.17%24.52%24.48%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV +0.008%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%24.91%25.03%28.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.683.704.0132.26%27.14%27.03%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 52.58%; Casa Pia (Visit): 22.48%; Draw: 24.94%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.490%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.61%EV -4.83%E -2.67%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.71%EV +0.490%E +0.110%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.69%EV -1.99%E -0.506%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-05 13:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -3.33%E -0.775%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -9.56%E -5.56%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.33%E -0.775%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.74%E -0.701%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 13:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.62%EV -8.51%E -4.89%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -3.33%E -0.775%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -5.73%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-05 13:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.39%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 21.98%EV -3.56%E -0.829%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.63%EV -8.22%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -2.73%E -1.47%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-05 15:47 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -5.58%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.74%EV -7.46%E -4.24%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.37%EV -6.70%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.89%EV -6.98%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 19:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.83%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.83%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-04 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -4.31%E -2.37%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.83%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.43%EV -4.83%E -2.67%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -7.83%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.88%E -3.29%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.32%EV -8.50%E -2.09%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.67%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.75%EV -6.41%E -3.60%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -1.49%E -0.377%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.75%EV -6.41%E -3.60%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -1.49%E -0.377%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 15:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-05 15:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -6.93%E -3.92%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -10.62%E -6.24%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-05 13:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -9.04%E -5.22%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-05 15:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.24%EV -9.04%E -5.22%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -22.69%E -7.32%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.93%E -3.92%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.20%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-04 21:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.54%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -12.32%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-05 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.19%EV -11.14%E -6.59%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -12.32%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -7.99%E -4.56%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -14.57%E -3.83%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.64%EV -9.56%E -5.56%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 51.13%EV -12.72%E -7.66%K -19.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.91%EV -20.19%E -5.69%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.96%EV -15.21%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 46.99% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.56% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 29.45% | 19.6% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 46.99% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.56% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 29.45% | 19.6% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 46.99% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 23.56% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 29.45% | 19.6% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 38.59% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 38.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 22.58% | 57.0% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |