Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Final: Vitória SC 0–1 Casa Pia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.96%54.23%54.15%55.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.721.7960.61%58.21%58.14%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 20.47%4.88fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.453%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.43%20.40%20.60%21.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.534.504.8023.26%22.07%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.389%
Kelly -0.524%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.25%25.38%25.25%27.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.643.603.8832.26%27.46%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 54.14%; Casa Pia (Visit): 20.47%; Draw: 25.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.88, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.21%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.78%EV -4.38%E -0.938%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.01%EV -1.51%E -0.389%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.19%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.76%EV -5.41%E -1.17%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.04%EV -2.78%E -0.725%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-11 18:35
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -2.74%E -0.578%K -0.732%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 04:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 04:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 04:39
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 04:39
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 04:39
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-11 04:39
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -2.74%E -0.578%K -0.732%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-11 18:34
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 04:39
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 04:39
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:35
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:35
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-11 18:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.43%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -3.77%E -0.802%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.43%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -3.77%E -0.802%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.29%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.97%EV -5.06%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.89%E -2.00%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:34
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.89%E -2.00%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:34
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.00%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 04:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 04:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 04:39
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.57%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 04:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.57%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 04:39
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.02%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.73%EV -7.04%E -1.55%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.25%EV -1.51%E -0.389%K -0.524%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:33
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -3.77%E -0.802%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -2.74%E -0.578%K -0.732%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.64%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -2.74%E -0.578%K -0.732%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-11 04:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.61%EV -7.96%E -4.68%K -11.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-11 04:39
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -8.50%E -5.03%K -12.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -1.72%E -0.358%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.21%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -11.96%E -2.78%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 18:35
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.58%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.69%EV -10.93%E -2.51%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 04:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -1.72%E -0.358%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 18:34
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -5.82%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.30%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -9.89%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-11 18:34
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-11 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.96%EV -9.58%E -5.74%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.04%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.99%EV -21.31%E -6.87%K -10.15%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-11 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -10.67%E -6.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -2.74%E -0.578%K -0.732%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 18:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -10.67%E -6.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.18%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%0.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.18%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%0.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.18%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%0.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Matchbook1.81I 55.25%NM 55.18%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%0.1%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-05-11 15:40
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.93%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.1%2026-05-11 18:35