Language:English
Tondela v Moreirense FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tondela (Local)
Prediction 47.07%2.12fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.94%47.05%47.05%48.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.971.982.0554.95%50.67%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Moreirense FC (Visit)
Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.334%
Kelly -0.452%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.61%25.66%26.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.613.603.8531.25%27.70%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.29%3.66fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.54%27.34%27.29%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.363.403.5434.72%29.77%29.41%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tondela (Local): 47.07%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 25.64%; Draw: 27.29%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.36%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -1.29%E -0.334%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.42%EV -3.41%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 13:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.87%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.79%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.34%EV -5.05%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.35%EV -5.38%E -2.68%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.35%EV -5.38%E -2.68%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 08:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.50%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.69%EV -5.90%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.17%EV -5.32%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-04 14:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.64%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -7.18%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.77%E -2.30%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-06 00:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 09:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.50%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 12:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.19%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 15:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 15:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-04 06:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 14:53 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.26%EV -9.62%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 26.70%EV -5.32%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 08:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -9.62%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-05 15:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%EV -21.42%E -7.44%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.30%EV -11.50%E -6.12%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -12.91%E -6.98%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 11:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.59%EV -14.32%E -7.87%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.50%EV -17.95%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.92%EV -14.05%E -4.46%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 47.68% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 34.42% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 17.90% | 71.9% | 2026-05-05 15:42 |