L’École des cotesFrançais
Tondela v Moreirense FC
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Tondela (Local)
Prévision 47.07%2.12cote équitable
EV -3.50%
Avantage -1.71%
Kelly -3.33%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.05
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.94%47.05%47.05%48.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.821.971.982.0554.95%50.67%50.51%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Moreirense FC (Visiteur)
Prévision 25.64%3.90cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.334%
Kelly -0.452%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.85
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.39%25.61%25.66%26.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.613.603.8531.25%27.70%27.78%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 27.29%3.66cote équitable
EV -3.41%
Avantage -0.963%
Kelly -1.34%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.54
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.54%27.34%27.29%29.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.363.403.5434.72%29.77%29.41%28.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.36%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -1.29%E -0.334%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.42%EV -3.41%E -0.963%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 13:15 |
| Neds | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| BetMGM | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.87%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.79%EV -5.39%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.34%EV -5.05%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.35%EV -5.38%E -2.68%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.35%EV -5.38%E -2.68%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 08:08 |
| Coolbet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.50%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| GTbets | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.69%EV -5.90%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.17%EV -5.32%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-04 14:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.64%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -7.18%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.77%E -2.30%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-05 22:25 |
| DraftKings | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-06 00:59 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Bovada | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 15:50 |
| BetUS | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| NordicBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 09:30 |
| Betsson | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.50%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 12:05 |
| Bet Right | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.19%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.86%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 15:48 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 16:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-05 15:44 |
| SportsBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.57%E -0.676%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 15:24 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| Everygame | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.23%E -2.13%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-04 06:05 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 14:53 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.26%EV -9.62%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 26.70%EV -5.32%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 08:34 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -9.62%E -5.01%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-05 15:49 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.32%E -3.48%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%EV -21.42%E -7.44%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-04 12:40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.30%EV -11.50%E -6.12%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -8.59%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -12.91%E -6.98%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -9.96%E -3.02%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-04 11:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 46.59%EV -14.32%E -7.87%K -17.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.50%EV -17.95%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.92%EV -14.05%E -4.46%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-04 14:09 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (4)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73% | 7.6% | 2026-05-05 15:35 |
| Smarkets | 1.22I 81.97%NM 47.68% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 34.42% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 17.90% | 71.9% | 2026-05-05 15:42 |