Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.22
assuming max odds 15.00
assuming max odds 7.67
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 77.62%; Nacional (Visit): 8.07%; Draw: 14.31%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.40. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.01%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.55%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.73%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.02%E +0.420%K +0.488%G +0.015% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 07:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 11:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.19%EV -12.29%E -10.87%K -94.50%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.36%EV -4.13%E -0.616%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.60%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.05%EV -5.13%E -0.436%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 7.67I 13.04%NM 12.35%EV +9.75%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.63%EV -11.51%E -10.10%K -82.21%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.79%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.58%EV -5.56%E -0.843%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.52%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.30%EV -9.24%E -0.821%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -12.00%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -6.08%E -5.02%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.73%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -15.29%E -1.46%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.72%EV -12.72%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-03 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.65%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.04%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.33%EV -23.36%E -2.46%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.93% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.94% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41% | 17.51I 5.71%NM 5.63% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.96% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |