Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Sporting Lisbon v Nacional

Inizio: 2026-09-05 19:32 UTC

Finale: Sporting Lisbon 2–0 Nacional

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

54 bookmaker (19 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Sporting Lisbon (Casa)

Previsione 77.62%1.29quota equa
EV -5.30%
Vantaggio -4.34%
Kelly -24.09%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.22

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
74.41%77.58%77.49%80.58%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.131.191.181.2288.50%84.38%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Nacional (Trasferta)

Previsione 8.07%12.40quota equa
EV +21.01%
Vantaggio +1.40%
Kelly +1.50%
Crescita +0.315%

ipotizzando la quota massima 15.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
6.18%7.99%8.09%9.38%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
9.5012.1112.0015.0010.53%8.26%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 14.31%6.99quota equa
EV +9.75%
Vantaggio +1.27%
Kelly +1.46%
Crescita +0.143%

ipotizzando la quota massima 7.67

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
12.35%14.42%14.42%17.43%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
5.256.496.507.6719.05%15.42%15.38%13.04%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Sporting Lisbon (Casa): 77.62%; Nacional (Trasferta): 8.07%; Pareggio: 14.31%. Per Nacional (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 12.40. 17 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 15.00, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +21.01%.

Quote dei bookmaker (54 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:29
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:28
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.55%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 11:35
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:00
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 14:28
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.73%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 11:35
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 09:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.02%E +0.420%K +0.488%G +0.015%7.1%2026-09-04 07:00
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 11:34
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.19%EV -12.29%E -10.87%K -94.50%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.36%EV -4.13%E -0.616%K -0.725%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.60%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%11.76I 8.50%NM 8.05%EV -5.13%E -0.436%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.35%EV +9.75%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143%5.6%2026-08-31 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:29
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:28
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.63%EV -11.51%E -10.10%K -82.21%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.79%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.58%EV -5.56%E -0.843%K -0.993%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.52%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.30%EV -9.24%E -0.821%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -12.00%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:45
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:59
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:45
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:45
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -6.08%E -5.02%K -28.93%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 09:55
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:04
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 11:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.73%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -15.29%E -1.46%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.72%EV -12.72%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.65%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 13:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:14
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.04%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.33%EV -23.36%E -2.46%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 14:00
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Matchbook◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.93%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%0.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.94%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88%1.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41%17.51I 5.71%NM 5.63%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.96%1.5%2026-09-04 14:30