Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Sporting Lisbon v Nacional

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-05 19:32 UTC

Score final : Sporting Lisbon 2–0 Nacional

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prévision 77.62%1.29cote équitable
EV -5.30%
Avantage -4.34%
Kelly -24.09%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.22

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
74.41%77.58%77.49%80.58%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.131.191.181.2288.50%84.38%84.75%81.97%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Nacional (Visiteur)

Prévision 8.07%12.40cote équitable
EV +21.01%
Avantage +1.40%
Kelly +1.50%
Croissance +0.315%

avec la cote maximale 15.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
6.18%7.99%8.09%9.38%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
9.5012.1112.0015.0010.53%8.26%8.33%6.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 14.31%6.99cote équitable
EV +9.75%
Avantage +1.27%
Kelly +1.46%
Croissance +0.143%

avec la cote maximale 7.67

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.35%14.42%14.42%17.43%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.256.496.507.6719.05%15.42%15.38%13.04%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Sporting Lisbon (Local) : 77.62% ; Nacional (Visiteur) : 8.07% ; Match nul : 14.31%. Pour Nacional (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 12.40. 17 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 15.00, soit une espérance positive de +21.01%.

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:29
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:28
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.55%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 11:35
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:00
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 14:28
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.73%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 11:35
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 09:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.02%E +0.420%K +0.488%G +0.015%7.1%2026-09-04 07:00
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 11:34
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 13:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.19%EV -12.29%E -10.87%K -94.50%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.36%EV -4.13%E -0.616%K -0.725%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.60%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000%11.76I 8.50%NM 8.05%EV -5.13%E -0.436%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.35%EV +9.75%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143%5.6%2026-08-31 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:29
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:28
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.63%EV -11.51%E -10.10%K -82.21%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.79%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.58%EV -5.56%E -0.843%K -0.993%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.52%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.30%EV -9.24%E -0.821%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -12.00%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 08:45
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:59
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:45
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:45
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -6.08%E -5.02%K -28.93%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 09:55
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:04
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 11:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.73%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -15.29%E -1.46%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.72%EV -12.72%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 14:10
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.65%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 13:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:14
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.04%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.33%EV -23.36%E -2.46%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 14:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.93%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%0.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.94%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88%1.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%1.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41%17.51I 5.71%NM 5.63%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.96%1.5%2026-09-04 14:30