Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.22
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 15.00
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.67
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 77.62%; Nacional (Visitante): 8.07%; Empate: 14.31%. Para Nacional (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 12.40. 17 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 15.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +21.01%.
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.26%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.31%EV +16.98%E +1.17%K +1.26%G +0.214% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -24.88%E -4.74%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.55%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV +12.94%E +0.925%K +0.996%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV +0.162%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.73%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.85%E -5.71%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.84%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV +4.88%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +3.02%E +0.420%K +0.488%G +0.015% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 07:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 11:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.19%EV -12.29%E -10.87%K -94.50%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.36%EV -4.13%E -0.616%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.60%EV -7.63%E -6.41%K -40.15%G +0.000% | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.05%EV -5.13%E -0.436%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 7.67I 13.04%NM 12.35%EV +9.75%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.02%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.63%EV -11.51%E -10.10%K -82.21%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.79%EV -7.22%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.58%EV -5.56%E -0.843%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.52%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.30%EV -9.24%E -0.821%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -12.00%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -6.08%E -5.02%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -8.40%E -7.12%K -46.69%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.73%EV -9.18%E -7.85%K -54.00%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -15.29%E -1.46%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.72%EV -12.72%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -21.30%E -3.87%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-03 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.65%EV -9.96%E -8.58%K -62.23%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.34%EV -3.41%E -0.506%K -0.594%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 13:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.31%EV -5.30%E -4.34%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -20.94%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.04%EV -10.73%E -9.33%K -71.55%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.33%EV -23.36%E -2.46%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.93% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.36% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.94% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.88% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.81% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.50% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.41% | 17.51I 5.71%NM 5.63% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.96% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |