Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:30 UTC

Final: Nacional 2–3 CF Estrela

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nacional (Local)

Prediction 39.75%2.52fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.73%39.82%39.76%41.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.302.4546.51%43.32%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.594%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%30.67%30.47%32.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.2235.71%33.33%33.33%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.60%3.38fair odd
EV -0.843%
Edge -0.252%
Kelly -0.359%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%29.50%29.77%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.3533.33%31.51%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 39.75%; CF Estrela (Visit): 30.65%; Draw: 29.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -0.843%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -2.60%E -1.06%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.40%E -1.40%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -1.32%E -0.410%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -4.69%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 14:15
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:24
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -5.38%E -2.26%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.84%EV -6.97%E -2.98%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -5.61%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.65%E -2.45%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 14:25
GTbets🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.69%EV -7.77%E -3.35%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.35%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.96%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 08:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.93%E -0.604%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 14:25
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:03
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.74%E -4.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.59%EV -9.76%E -4.30%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.66%E -4.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.19%E -5.07%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.35%E -5.09%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.54%EV -5.87%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:09
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 14:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -14.53%E -6.76%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-30 14:20
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%2.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-08-30 14:25