默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional v CF Estrela

开赛时间: 2026-08-30 14:30 UTC

最终结果: Nacional 2–3 CF Estrela

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

56 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional (主队)

预测 39.75%2.52公平赔率
EV -2.60%
优势 -1.06%
Kelly -1.79%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.45

博彩公司预测分布
38.73%39.82%39.76%41.31%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.152.312.302.4546.51%43.32%43.48%40.82%最小值均值中位数最大值

CF Estrela (客队)

预测 30.65%3.26公平赔率
EV -1.32%
优势 -0.410%
Kelly -0.594%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.22

博彩公司预测分布
29.21%30.67%30.47%32.02%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.803.003.003.2235.71%33.33%33.33%31.06%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 29.60%3.38公平赔率
EV -0.843%
优势 -0.252%
Kelly -0.359%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.35

博彩公司预测分布
27.90%29.50%29.77%30.73%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.003.173.203.3533.33%31.51%31.25%29.85%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Nacional (主队):39.75%;CF Estrela (客队):30.65%;平局:29.60%。 对于“平局”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.38。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率:最佳赔率为3.35,期望值为-0.843%,未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (56 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -2.60%E -1.06%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.40%E -1.40%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -1.32%E -0.410%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -4.69%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 14:15
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:24
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -5.38%E -2.26%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.84%EV -6.97%E -2.98%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -5.61%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.65%E -2.45%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 14:25
GTbets🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.69%EV -7.77%E -3.35%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.35%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.96%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 08:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.93%E -0.604%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 14:25
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:03
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.74%E -4.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.59%EV -9.76%E -4.30%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.66%E -4.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.19%E -5.07%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.35%E -5.09%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.54%EV -5.87%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:09
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 14:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -14.53%E -6.76%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 14:05
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-30 14:20
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%2.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-08-30 14:25