StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nacional v CF Estrela

Matchstart: 2026-08-30 14:30 UTC

Slutresultat: Nacional 2–3 CF Estrela

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

56 spelbolag (19 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nacional (Hemma)

Prognos 39.75%2.52rättvist odds
EV -2.60%
Fördel -1.06%
Kelly -1.79%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.45

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
38.73%39.82%39.76%41.31%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.152.312.302.4546.51%43.32%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Borta)

Prognos 30.65%3.26rättvist odds
EV -1.32%
Fördel -0.410%
Kelly -0.594%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.22

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
29.21%30.67%30.47%32.02%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.803.003.003.2235.71%33.33%33.33%31.06%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 29.60%3.38rättvist odds
EV -0.843%
Fördel -0.252%
Kelly -0.359%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.35

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
27.90%29.50%29.77%30.73%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
3.003.173.203.3533.33%31.51%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Nacional (Hemma): 39.75%; CF Estrela (Borta): 30.65%; Oavgjort: 29.60%. För Oavgjort motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 3.38. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 3.35, med väntevärdet -0.843%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (56 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaOavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -2.60%E -1.06%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 14:25
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.40%E -1.40%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -1.32%E -0.410%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.07%EV -4.69%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 14:15
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.32%E -0.704%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.59%E -1.91%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Bovada🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:24
BetUS🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.22%EV -4.99%E -2.09%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -9.72%E -3.19%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -5.38%E -2.26%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:10
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.55%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -6.58%E -2.80%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.84%EV -6.97%E -2.98%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -5.61%E -1.82%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.88%EV -7.65%E -2.45%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 14:25
GTbets🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.69%EV -7.77%E -3.35%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.35%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.96%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 08:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.93%E -0.604%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.00%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.24%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 14:25
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:03
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.74%E -4.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:25
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.56%E -3.72%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:20
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -9.36%E -4.11%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.53%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -0.843%E -0.252%K -0.359%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.59%EV -9.76%E -4.30%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.20%E -3.73%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.66%E -4.44%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -3.80%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 21:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -10.55%E -4.69%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.19%E -5.07%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.70%EV -11.35%E -5.09%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.54%EV -5.87%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:09
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 14:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -12.54%E -5.70%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.10%EV -13.33%E -6.12%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -5.28%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.26%EV -14.53%E -6.76%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -11.13%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%EV -6.76%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 14:05
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-30 14:20
Matchbook◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%2.3%2026-08-30 14:25
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-08-30 14:25