Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.91
assuming max odds 2.62
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 33.69%; Alverca (Visit): 37.20%; Draw: 29.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -1.96%E -0.672%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.10%EV -2.91%E -1.11%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -4.82%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -2.29%E -0.791%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.08%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -7.37%E -2.96%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.18%EV -6.27%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.19%EV -4.65%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.98%EV -5.51%E -2.17%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.17%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -6.63%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.60%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 14:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-12 14:17 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.44%E -6.28%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.58%E -5.35%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -7.74%E -3.12%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 35.34%EV -15.10%E -5.99%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -9.60%E -3.95%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.01%EV -7.44%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33% | 0.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71% | 1.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |