默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional v Alverca

开赛时间: 2026-09-12 14:30 UTC

最终结果: Nacional 1–3 Alverca

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

56 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Nacional (主队)

预测 33.69%2.97公平赔率
EV -1.96%
优势 -0.672%
Kelly -1.02%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.91

博彩公司预测分布
32.22%33.71%33.79%35.34%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.522.722.752.9139.68%36.78%36.36%34.36%最小值均值中位数最大值

Alverca (客队)

预测 37.20%2.69公平赔率
EV -2.54%
优势 -0.968%
Kelly -1.57%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.62

博彩公司预测分布
35.88%37.20%37.14%38.90%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.302.502.502.6243.48%39.94%40.00%38.17%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 29.11%3.44公平赔率
EV -1.03%
优势 -0.304%
Kelly -0.431%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.40

博彩公司预测分布
27.62%29.09%29.07%31.14%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.32%31.25%29.41%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Nacional (主队):33.69%;Alverca (客队):37.20%;平局:29.11%。 对于“平局”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.44。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率:最佳赔率为3.40,期望值为-1.03%,未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (56 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -1.96%E -0.672%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.10%EV -2.91%E -1.11%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -4.82%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -2.29%E -0.791%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:26
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:20
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.08%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -7.37%E -2.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.18%EV -6.27%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.19%EV -4.65%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.98%EV -5.51%E -2.17%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.17%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -6.63%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.60%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 14:18
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 14:19
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:17
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:24
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:25
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:20
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.44%E -6.28%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.58%E -5.35%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:14
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -7.74%E -3.12%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.34%EV -15.10%E -5.99%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -9.60%E -3.95%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.01%EV -7.44%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 14:20
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18%0.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-09-12 14:20