Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.91
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Nacional (Local): 33.69%; Alverca (Visitante): 37.20%; Empate: 29.11%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.44. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.40, con un valor esperado de -1.03%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -1.96%E -0.672%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.10%EV -2.91%E -1.11%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -4.82%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -2.29%E -0.791%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.08%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -7.37%E -2.96%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.18%EV -6.27%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.19%EV -4.65%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.98%EV -5.51%E -2.17%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.17%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -6.63%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.60%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-12 14:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-12 14:17 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.44%E -6.28%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.58%E -5.35%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -7.74%E -3.12%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 35.34%EV -15.10%E -5.99%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -9.60%E -3.95%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.01%EV -7.44%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33% | 0.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 14:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18% | 0.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71% | 1.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |