Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Nacional v Alverca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-12 14:30 UTC

Score final : Nacional 1–3 Alverca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Nacional (Local)

Prévision 33.69%2.97cote équitable
EV -1.96%
Avantage -0.672%
Kelly -1.02%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.22%33.71%33.79%35.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.522.722.752.9139.68%36.78%36.36%34.36%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Alverca (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.20%2.69cote équitable
EV -2.54%
Avantage -0.968%
Kelly -1.57%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.62

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.88%37.20%37.14%38.90%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.302.502.502.6243.48%39.94%40.00%38.17%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 29.11%3.44cote équitable
EV -1.03%
Avantage -0.304%
Kelly -0.431%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.62%29.09%29.07%31.14%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.32%31.25%29.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Nacional (Local) : 33.69% ; Alverca (Visiteur) : 37.20% ; Match nul : 29.11%. Pour Match nul, cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.44. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 3.40, pour une espérance de -1.03% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -1.96%E -0.672%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.10%EV -2.91%E -1.11%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -4.82%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -2.29%E -0.791%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:26
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:20
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.08%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -7.37%E -2.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.18%EV -6.27%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.19%EV -4.65%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.98%EV -5.51%E -2.17%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.17%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -6.63%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.60%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 14:18
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 14:19
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:17
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:24
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:25
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:20
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.44%E -6.28%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.58%E -5.35%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:14
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -7.74%E -3.12%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.34%EV -15.10%E -5.99%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -9.60%E -3.95%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.01%EV -7.44%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18%0.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-09-12 14:20