StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nacional v Alverca

Matchstart: 2026-09-12 14:30 UTC

Slutresultat: Nacional 1–3 Alverca

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

56 spelbolag (19 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nacional (Hemma)

Prognos 33.69%2.97rättvist odds
EV -1.96%
Fördel -0.672%
Kelly -1.02%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.91

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
32.22%33.71%33.79%35.34%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.522.722.752.9139.68%36.78%36.36%34.36%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Alverca (Borta)

Prognos 37.20%2.69rättvist odds
EV -2.54%
Fördel -0.968%
Kelly -1.57%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.62

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
35.88%37.20%37.14%38.90%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.302.502.502.6243.48%39.94%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 29.11%3.44rättvist odds
EV -1.03%
Fördel -0.304%
Kelly -0.431%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.40

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
27.62%29.09%29.07%31.14%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.32%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Nacional (Hemma): 33.69%; Alverca (Borta): 37.20%; Oavgjort: 29.11%. För Oavgjort motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 3.44. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 3.40, med väntevärdet -1.03%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (56 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaOavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.28%EV -1.96%E -0.672%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.10%EV -2.91%E -1.11%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -4.82%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -2.29%E -0.791%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:26
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:20
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.08%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.74%EV -7.37%E -2.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.18%EV -6.27%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.19%EV -4.65%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.98%EV -5.51%E -2.17%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.17%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -6.63%E -2.64%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -8.60%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -2.54%E -0.968%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.03%E -0.304%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -5.14%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.66%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 14:18
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 14:19
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 14:17
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:24
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:25
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.68%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:20
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -9.03%E -3.34%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.44%E -6.28%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -6.86%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -3.28%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.72%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.94%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -8.86%E -3.62%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -10.72%E -4.04%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -12.58%E -5.35%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -5.40%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:14
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.05%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.31%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.18%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.00%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -14.09%E -5.52%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -7.74%E -3.12%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.77%E -3.15%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.34%EV -15.10%E -5.99%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.65%EV -9.60%E -3.95%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.01%EV -7.44%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-09-12 14:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.52%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18%0.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-09-12 14:20