Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente v Casa Pia

Kickoff: 2026-04-27 19:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 59.61%1.68fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -6.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%59.65%59.61%61.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.571.6168.97%63.93%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 16.12%6.20fair odd
EV +0.618%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.53%16.13%16.11%17.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.665.756.2421.28%17.68%17.39%16.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -0.502%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.162%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%24.21%24.27%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.783.804.1030.30%26.42%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 59.61%; Casa Pia (Visit): 16.12%; Draw: 24.27%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.618%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.19%EV -4.03%E -2.50%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.53%EV +0.618%E +0.099%K +0.118%G +0.001%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.29%EV -3.17%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 19:24
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.57%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -0.502%E -0.122%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 19:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.81%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:19
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.97%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.98%EV -4.38%E -0.739%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.05%EV -4.38%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:24
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:20
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:19
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.01%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.02%EV -5.19%E -0.882%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.97%EV -4.63%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:15
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.00%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 20:19
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.22%E -3.29%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 18:30
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 20:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:47
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 11:10
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 19:39
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.65%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.59%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.29%EV -3.41%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 21:15
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.54%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.16%EV -9.99%E -6.62%K -19.59%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.94%EV -8.09%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-24 01:19
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:48
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:31
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:30
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-20 22:24
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 22:25
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 19:19
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.33%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:19
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 22:24
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 19:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 16:30
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.26%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -15.35%E -2.92%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.51%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -19.38%E -3.88%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -19.92%E -6.04%K -8.66%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.75%EV -11.78%E -7.96%K -24.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.75%EV -20.99%E -4.28%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-20 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 58.24%EV -13.57%E -9.36%K -30.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.97%EV -24.21%E -5.15%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.79%EV -13.85%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%18.4%2026-04-20 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%13.3%2026-04-20 19:20
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 54.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 26.23%18.1%2026-04-24 01:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-04-23 21:35