La escuela de los momios

Gil Vicente v Casa Pia

Inicio: 2026-04-27 19:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Gil Vicente (Local)

Predicción 59.61%1.68momio equitativo
EV -4.03%
Ventaja -2.50%
Kelly -6.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.51%59.65%59.61%61.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.451.561.571.6168.97%63.93%63.69%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Casa Pia (Visitante)

Predicción 16.12%6.20momio equitativo
EV +0.618%
Ventaja +0.099%
Kelly +0.118%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.53%16.13%16.11%17.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.705.665.756.2421.28%17.68%17.39%16.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.27%4.12momio equitativo
EV -0.502%
Ventaja -0.122%
Kelly -0.162%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.83%24.21%24.27%26.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.783.804.1030.30%26.42%26.32%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 60.19%EV -4.03%E -2.50%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.53%EV +0.618%E +0.099%K +0.118%G +0.001%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.29%EV -3.17%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 19:24
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 11:10
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.57%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -0.502%E -0.122%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 19:19
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.81%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:19
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 59.97%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.98%EV -4.38%E -0.739%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.05%EV -4.38%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:24
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:20
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:19
GTbets1.57I 63.69%NM 60.01%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.02%EV -5.19%E -0.882%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.97%EV -4.63%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 00:05
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:15
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 59.00%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 20:19
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.22%E -3.29%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 18:30
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 20:01
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:01
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Bovada1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:47
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 11:10
Bet Right1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 11:10
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 19:39
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 59.65%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 20:59
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 19:15
Betclic (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.59%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.29%EV -3.41%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 21:15
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:15
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.54%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 19:25
NetBet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.16%EV -9.99%E -6.62%K -19.59%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.94%EV -8.09%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-24 01:19
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:49
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:48
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:31
Unibet (NL)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:30
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-20 22:24
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 22:25
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 19:19
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 58.33%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:19
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 22:24
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 19:19
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 16:30
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 58.26%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -15.35%E -2.92%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 56.51%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -19.38%E -3.88%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -19.92%E -6.04%K -8.66%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 20:05
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 58.75%EV -11.78%E -7.96%K -24.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.75%EV -20.99%E -4.28%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-20 16:35
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 58.24%EV -13.57%E -9.36%K -30.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.97%EV -24.21%E -5.15%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.79%EV -13.85%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%18.4%2026-04-20 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%13.3%2026-04-20 19:20
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 54.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 26.23%18.1%2026-04-24 01:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-04-23 21:35