Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Gil Vicente v Casa Pia

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-27 19:15 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prévision 59.61%1.68cote équitable
EV -4.03%
Avantage -2.50%
Kelly -6.61%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.51%59.65%59.61%61.57%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.451.561.571.6168.97%63.93%63.69%62.11%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Casa Pia (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.12%6.20cote équitable
EV +0.618%
Avantage +0.099%
Kelly +0.118%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 6.24

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.53%16.13%16.11%17.97%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.705.665.756.2421.28%17.68%17.39%16.03%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 24.27%4.12cote équitable
EV -0.502%
Avantage -0.122%
Kelly -0.162%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.83%24.21%24.27%26.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.783.804.1030.30%26.42%26.32%24.39%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Gil Vicente (Local) : 59.61% ; Casa Pia (Visiteur) : 16.12% ; Match nul : 24.27%. Pour Casa Pia (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 6.20. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 6.24, soit une espérance positive de +0.618%.

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.19%EV -4.03%E -2.50%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.53%EV +0.618%E +0.099%K +0.118%G +0.001%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.29%EV -3.17%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 19:24
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.57%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -0.502%E -0.122%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 19:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.25%E -0.542%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.81%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:19
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.97%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 15.98%EV -4.38%E -0.739%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.05%EV -4.38%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:24
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:20
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -4.86%E -0.825%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:19
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.01%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.02%EV -5.19%E -0.882%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.97%EV -4.63%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:15
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.00%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -6.48%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 20:19
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.22%E -3.29%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -2.93%E -0.732%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 18:30
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 20:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 20:00
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 21:47
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 11:10
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 19:39
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.65%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -6.57%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.59%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.29%EV -3.41%E -0.858%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 21:15
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 20:14
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.54%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -7.28%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.16%EV -9.99%E -6.62%K -19.59%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.94%EV -8.09%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-24 01:19
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.05%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 20:48
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.86%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:31
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.82%EV -7.01%E -4.49%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -9.70%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:30
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.36%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-20 22:24
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 22:25
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 19:19
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.33%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:19
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 22:24
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.00%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 19:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 16:30
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.31%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 16:30
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.26%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -15.35%E -2.92%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -12.64%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.51%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -19.38%E -3.88%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -19.92%E -6.04%K -8.66%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.75%EV -11.78%E -7.96%K -24.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.75%EV -20.99%E -4.28%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%EV -10.21%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-20 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 58.24%EV -13.57%E -9.36%K -30.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.97%EV -24.21%E -5.15%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.79%EV -13.85%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%18.4%2026-04-20 16:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%13.3%2026-04-20 19:20
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 54.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 26.23%18.1%2026-04-24 01:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.07I 93.46%NM 32.80%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.41%185.0%2026-04-23 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-04-23 21:35