Language:English
Gil Vicente v Arouca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gil Vicente (Local)
Prediction 55.21%1.81fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.18%55.15%55.23%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.701.7563.29%59.32%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arouca (Visit)
Prediction 20.18%4.95fair odd
EV -0.504%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.128%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.59%20.29%20.12%21.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.554.604.9325.32%21.98%21.74%20.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.61%4.06fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.387%
Kelly -0.516%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%24.56%24.65%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.733.754.0031.25%26.81%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 55.21%; Arouca (Visit): 20.18%; Draw: 24.61%. For Arouca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.93, with an expected value of -0.504%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.39%E -1.94%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.68%EV -0.504%E -0.102%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV -4.01%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV -4.14%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -5.24%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-05 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.49%E -2.60%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.05%E -2.93%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.32%EV -5.05%E -2.93%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.05%E -2.93%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -11.20%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 08:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.05%E -2.93%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -11.20%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -5.60%E -3.27%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.76%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.00%EV -4.34%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.24%EV -3.76%E -0.962%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-05 07:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 11:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -5.15%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 19:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -5.15%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 16:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 16:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.16%E -1.56%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 14:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.20%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -12.61%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 17:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.15%E -3.62%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 16:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -6.70%E -3.97%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -4.14%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -1.55%E -0.387%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 07:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.70%E -3.97%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.01%EV -4.94%E -1.05%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.23%EV -4.26%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 00:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -6.70%E -3.97%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.13%E -0.652%K -0.823%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.68%EV -6.70%E -3.97%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -11.20%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 01:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.26%E -4.32%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.14%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-05 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -7.81%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.14%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.47%E -1.70%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 19:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.81%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -12.61%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-04 05:41 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -7.81%E -4.67%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.61%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -13.85%E -3.96%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-05 15:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.33%EV -8.36%E -5.04%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.14%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -4.01%E -1.03%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 19:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -8.36%E -5.04%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.94%EV -6.16%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.21%EV -5.73%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 05:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -8.91%E -5.40%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -5.15%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -1.55%E -0.387%K -0.516%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.91%E -5.40%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -7.70%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-05 16:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.47%EV -10.02%E -6.14%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -9.18%E -2.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -10.57%E -6.52%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -15.24%E -3.63%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -8.93%E -2.41%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-04 13:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.18%EV -10.57%E -6.52%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.90%EV -12.61%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.92%EV -21.24%E -6.64%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-05 15:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.31%EV -11.67%E -7.29%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.11%EV -11.20%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -11.39%E -3.16%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-04 11:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 53.82%EV -12.78%E -8.09%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 21.53%EV -20.28%E -5.13%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.65%EV -15.09%E -4.37%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-04 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47% | 7.5% | 2026-05-05 14:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 47.59% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 30.51% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 21.90% | 25.1% | 2026-05-05 14:40 |