Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.91
assuming max odds 2.66
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 33.62%; Benfica (Visit): 37.43%; Draw: 28.95%. For Benfica (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.66, with an expected value of -0.433%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.30%EV -2.16%E -0.744%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -1.93%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.72%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.34%EV -3.17%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.41%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.07%EV -4.92%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.90%EV -4.52%E -1.59%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.61%EV -4.18%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.49%EV -2.15%E -0.637%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 19:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 19:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 19:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.35%EV -6.20%E -2.22%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.44%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 19:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 19:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 19:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 18:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 18:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.32%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.18%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -12.04%E -5.12%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 19:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -13.91%E -6.05%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.74%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.95%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 19:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-20 19:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -12.59%E -4.84%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 19:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -15.95%E -6.38%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-20 18:19 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 19:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.17% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.88% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-20 19:30 |