Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto v Benfica

2026-09-20 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.51%34.19%34.19%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.682.692.8540.82%37.31%37.24%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 38.51%2.60fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.487%
Kelly +0.785%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.85%38.53%38.45%41.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.422.412.6348.31%41.35%41.49%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.371%
Kelly -0.513%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.29%27.36%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.353.303.6031.75%29.83%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Porto (Local): 34.08%; Benfica (Visit): 38.51%; Draw: 27.41%. For Benfica (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.63, producing a positive expected value of +1.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV +1.28%E +0.487%K +0.785%G +0.010%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.89%EV -7.36%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-14 00:20
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -7.98%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 23:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:01
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:01
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:00
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.73%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 20:01
Pinnacle🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.14%EV -4.91%E -1.76%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.88%E -1.98%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.29%EV -4.35%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-14 01:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 23:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -10.36%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 23:40
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 23:40
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.98%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.82%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 00:50
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -5.65%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.08%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 23:40
Bovada🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.12%EV -5.93%E -2.15%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.59%EV -6.04%E -2.47%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.45%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 01:03
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.39%EV -7.63%E -2.82%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -6.42%E -2.64%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.25%EV -6.27%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 00:01
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.81%E -2.81%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 23:01
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.81%E -2.81%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 23:00
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -2.86%E -1.00%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.08%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 23:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.57%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.82%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-14 01:35
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.70%E -4.08%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -1.33%E -0.371%K -0.513%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 23:39
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 23:14
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 23:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.27%E -2.28%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 23:14
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -11.38%E -4.38%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.08%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 23:40
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 20:01
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.30%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 20:01
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 20:00
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -7.58%E -3.16%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 21:45
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -14.79%E -5.92%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.82%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.36%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.59%EV -8.35%E -3.51%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 20:01
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -14.79%E -5.92%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -11.43%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -9.56%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-14 00:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -13.09%E -5.13%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.99%EV -11.43%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -13.67%E -4.34%K -6.36%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-14 00:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 33.63%EV -9.00%E -3.37%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.56%EV -12.58%E -5.54%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%EV -8.19%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-14 01:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.18%EV -16.50%E -6.73%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.30%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.52%EV -10.93%E -3.36%K -4.86%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-14 00:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.51%EV -9.68%E -3.65%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.62%EV -20.29%E -9.80%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 25.87%EV -8.73%E -2.62%K -3.75%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-14 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.98%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.69%7.9%2026-09-14 01:30
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 34.44%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.00%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%13.4%2026-09-14 00:50