L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
+ Nouveau modèleTous les modèles

FC Porto v Benfica

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-20 19:31 UTC

Score final : FC Porto 3–1 Benfica

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

FC Porto (Local)

Prévision 33.62%2.97cote équitable
EV -2.16%
Avantage -0.744%
Kelly -1.13%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.00%33.69%33.63%35.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.502.752.752.9140.00%36.37%36.36%34.36%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Benfica (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.43%2.67cote équitable
EV -0.433%
Avantage -0.163%
Kelly -0.261%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.70%37.38%37.39%38.99%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.302.472.462.6643.48%40.42%40.57%37.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 28.95%3.45cote équitable
EV -1.58%
Avantage -0.463%
Kelly -0.656%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.17%28.93%28.98%30.63%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.053.213.203.4032.79%31.13%31.25%29.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : FC Porto (Local) : 33.62% ; Benfica (Visiteur) : 37.43% ; Match nul : 28.95%. Pour Benfica (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 2.67. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 2.66, pour une espérance de -0.433% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.30%EV -2.16%E -0.744%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -1.93%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.72%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-20 19:29
Coolbet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.34%EV -3.17%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.41%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 19:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 19:29
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.07%EV -4.92%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 19:24
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:09
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.90%EV -4.52%E -1.59%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.61%EV -4.18%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.49%EV -2.15%E -0.637%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-20 19:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
BetUS🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 19:09
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 19:24
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 19:23
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:14
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.35%EV -6.20%E -2.22%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.44%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 19:24
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 19:24
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 19:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 19:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 19:09
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 19:09
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 19:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:30
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 19:24
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 19:09
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 19:29
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 19:24
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 19:29
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.32%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.18%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 19:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -12.04%E -5.12%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 19:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -13.91%E -6.05%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.74%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.95%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:25
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 19:19
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-20 19:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -12.59%E -4.84%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -15.95%E -6.38%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 18:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:30
Smarkets◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-20 19:30
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-20 19:30
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.88%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-09-20 19:30