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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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FC Porto v Benfica

Inicio: 2026-09-20 19:31 UTC

Final: FC Porto 3–1 Benfica

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Porto (Local)

Predicción 33.62%2.97momio equitativo
EV -2.16%
Ventaja -0.744%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.00%33.69%33.63%35.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.752.752.9140.00%36.37%36.36%34.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Benfica (Visitante)

Predicción 37.43%2.67momio equitativo
EV -0.433%
Ventaja -0.163%
Kelly -0.261%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.70%37.38%37.39%38.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.472.462.6643.48%40.42%40.57%37.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.95%3.45momio equitativo
EV -1.58%
Ventaja -0.463%
Kelly -0.656%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.17%28.93%28.98%30.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.213.203.4032.79%31.13%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Porto (Local): 33.62%; Benfica (Visitante): 37.43%; Empate: 28.95%. Para Benfica (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.67. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.66, con un valor esperado de -0.433%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.30%EV -2.16%E -0.744%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -1.93%E -0.737%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.72%EV -5.63%E -1.73%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-20 19:29
Coolbet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.34%EV -3.17%E -1.10%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.41%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-20 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 19:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.17%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 19:29
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.07%EV -4.92%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 19:24
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.18%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 19:09
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.90%EV -4.52%E -1.59%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.61%EV -4.18%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.49%EV -2.15%E -0.637%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-20 19:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
BetUS🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.67%EV -5.19%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -0.433%E -0.163%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 19:29
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 19:09
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -1.58%E -0.463%K -0.656%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 19:24
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 19:23
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:14
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -5.86%E -2.09%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.35%EV -6.20%E -2.22%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.44%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 19:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.02%E -0.902%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 19:09
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 19:24
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -4.55%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 19:24
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 19:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 19:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 19:09
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 19:09
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.29%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 19:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:29
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -7.54%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -9.04%E -3.72%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 19:30
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 19:24
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 19:09
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 19:29
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 19:24
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 19:29
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 19:29
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -10.91%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.32%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.18%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.50%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 19:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -12.04%E -5.12%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 19:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -13.91%E -6.05%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.74%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.95%EV -9.42%E -3.89%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 19:25
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.42%E -2.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 19:19
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -11.91%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-20 19:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -12.59%E -4.84%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -2.68%E -1.03%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -15.95%E -6.38%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -10.16%E -4.24%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 18:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%0.4%2026-09-20 19:30
Smarkets◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-20 19:30
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.64%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.71%1.1%2026-09-20 19:30
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.88%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-09-20 19:30