Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 78.29%1.28fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -8.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.06%78.19%78.26%80.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.201.211.2587.72%83.23%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 6.77%14.76fair odd
EV +15.14%
Edge +0.891%
Kelly +0.946%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.50%6.86%6.81%8.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.0212.7517.009.09%7.68%7.84%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.94%6.69fair odd
EV +8.32%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.31%14.95%14.93%18.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.346.447.2520.00%15.78%15.54%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 78.29%; Arouca (Visit): 6.77%; Draw: 14.94%. For Arouca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.76. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.56%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +15.14%E +0.891%K +0.946%G +0.143%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.95%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Coolbet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV -6.62%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.43%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.00%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.76%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%15.41I 6.49%NM 6.21%EV +4.37%E +0.284%K +0.303%G +0.013%6.82I 14.66%NM 14.03%EV +1.90%E +0.278%K +0.326%G +0.006%4.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.04%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 18:39
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 18:38
BetUS🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.43%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.52I 6.89%NM 6.51%EV -1.66%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.06%EV +0.402%E +0.060%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 17:59
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.90%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.32%EV +8.32%E +1.15%K +1.33%G +0.111%3.6%2026-02-27 17:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.87%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.87%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.26%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.9%2026-02-27 18:39
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:38
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Bovada🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 18:38
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -10.75%E -9.43%K -76.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.40%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 18:39
GTbets🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.40%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.32I 7.51%NM 7.06%EV -9.78%E -0.735%K -0.794%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.54%EV -3.33%E -0.515%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
betPARX🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:35
Everygame🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 17:57
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.06%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -25.30%E -5.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-27 18:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.64%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -15.34%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.13%EV -4.38%E -0.684%K -0.811%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-27 17:58
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.85%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.10I 8.26%NM 8.04%EV -18.05%E -1.49%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.10%EV +3.09%E +0.448%K +0.524%G +0.016%2.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:40
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%7.4%2026-02-27 17:58
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-27 17:57
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Casumo🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Bally Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.37%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.43%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.98%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%9.0%2026-02-27 17:58
Marathon Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.04%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.29%EV -23.80%E -2.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.68%EV -5.13%E -0.807%K -0.958%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:13
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:40
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 81.08%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.02%1.9%2026-02-27 18:39