L’École des cotes

FC Porto v Arouca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-27 18:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Prévision 78.29%1.28cote équitable
EV -2.14%
Avantage -1.71%
Kelly -8.57%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
75.06%78.19%78.26%80.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.141.201.211.2587.72%83.23%82.64%80.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arouca (Visiteur)

Prévision 6.77%14.76cote équitable
EV +15.14%
Avantage +0.891%
Kelly +0.946%
Croissance +0.143%

avec la cote maximale 17.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
5.50%6.86%6.81%8.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
11.0013.0212.7517.009.09%7.68%7.84%5.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 14.94%6.69cote équitable
EV +8.32%
Avantage +1.15%
Kelly +1.33%
Croissance +0.111%

avec la cote maximale 7.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.31%14.95%14.93%18.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.006.346.447.2520.00%15.78%15.54%13.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.56%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +15.14%E +0.891%K +0.946%G +0.143%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.95%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Coolbet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV -6.62%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 18:15
Unibet (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.43%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.00%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 79.76%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%15.41I 6.49%NM 6.21%EV +4.37%E +0.284%K +0.303%G +0.013%6.82I 14.66%NM 14.03%EV +1.90%E +0.278%K +0.326%G +0.006%4.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.04%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
PointsBet (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Sky Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 18:39
FanDuel1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 18:38
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 79.43%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.52I 6.89%NM 6.51%EV -1.66%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.06%EV +0.402%E +0.060%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 17:59
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:39
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.90%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.32%EV +8.32%E +1.15%K +1.33%G +0.111%3.6%2026-02-27 17:59
LowVig.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 78.87%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.87%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.26%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.9%2026-02-27 18:39
Fanatics1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:38
DraftKings1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Bovada1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 18:38
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Bet Right1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 18:39
PMU (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -10.75%E -9.43%K -76.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.40%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 18:39
GTbets1.20I 83.33%NM 78.40%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.32I 7.51%NM 7.06%EV -9.78%E -0.735%K -0.794%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.54%EV -3.33%E -0.515%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
TABtouch1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
BetRivers1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
betPARX1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:35
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 16:59
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 17:57
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 75.06%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -25.30%E -5.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-27 18:15
NetBet (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 78.64%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -15.34%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.13%EV -4.38%E -0.684%K -0.811%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-27 17:58
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 77.85%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.10I 8.26%NM 8.04%EV -18.05%E -1.49%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.10%EV +3.09%E +0.448%K +0.524%G +0.016%2.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
888sport1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:40
William Hill1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
888sport (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Mr Green (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (DE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%7.4%2026-02-27 17:58
Betway1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-27 17:57
Unibet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (NL)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Casumo1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Bally Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:40
Svenska Spel1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
BetMGM1.22I 81.97%NM 76.37%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.43%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.98%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%9.0%2026-02-27 17:58
Marathon Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.04%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.29%EV -23.80%E -2.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.68%EV -5.13%E -0.807%K -0.958%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:13
Neds1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:40
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 81.08%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.02%1.9%2026-02-27 18:39