La escuela de los momios

FC Porto v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-02-27 18:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Predicción 78.29%1.28momio equitativo
EV -2.14%
Ventaja -1.71%
Kelly -8.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.06%78.19%78.26%80.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.141.201.211.2587.72%83.23%82.64%80.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 6.77%14.76momio equitativo
EV +15.14%
Ventaja +0.891%
Kelly +0.946%
Crecimiento +0.143%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 17.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.50%6.86%6.81%8.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
11.0013.0212.7517.009.09%7.68%7.84%5.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.94%6.69momio equitativo
EV +8.32%
Ventaja +1.15%
Kelly +1.33%
Crecimiento +0.111%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.31%14.95%14.93%18.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.006.346.447.2520.00%15.78%15.54%13.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.56%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +15.14%E +0.891%K +0.946%G +0.143%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.95%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Coolbet1.21I 82.64%NM 78.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV -6.62%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 18:15
Unibet (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.43%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
Paddy Power1.17I 85.47%NM 78.86%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.00%EV -9.19%E -7.92%K -57.42%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV +8.37%E +0.523%K +0.558%G +0.047%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 79.76%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%15.41I 6.49%NM 6.21%EV +4.37%E +0.284%K +0.303%G +0.013%6.82I 14.66%NM 14.03%EV +1.90%E +0.278%K +0.326%G +0.006%4.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.04%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
PointsBet (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Sky Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-27 18:39
FanDuel1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV +1.59%E +0.106%K +0.114%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 18:38
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 79.43%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.52I 6.89%NM 6.51%EV -1.66%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.06%EV +0.402%E +0.060%K +0.070%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 17:59
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -1.79%E -0.124%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -11.85%E -2.01%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:39
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.79%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.90%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.32%EV +8.32%E +1.15%K +1.33%G +0.111%3.6%2026-02-27 17:59
LowVig.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 78.87%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.87%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.26%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%3.9%2026-02-27 18:39
Fanatics1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:38
DraftKings1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 18:14
Bovada1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 18:38
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Bet Right1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -6.84%E -5.75%K -36.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 18:39
PMU (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -10.75%E -9.43%K -76.81%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.40%EV -5.18%E -0.370%K -0.398%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 18:39
GTbets1.20I 83.33%NM 78.40%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.32I 7.51%NM 7.06%EV -9.78%E -0.735%K -0.794%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.54%EV -3.33%E -0.515%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:14
TABtouch1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
BetRivers1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:14
betPARX1.21I 82.64%NM 76.82%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -13.34%E -2.30%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 18:35
Everygame1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -2.88%E -0.444%K -0.525%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 16:59
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 17:57
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 75.06%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -11.95%E -0.919%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -25.30%E -5.06%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-27 18:15
NetBet (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 78.64%EV -9.97%E -8.67%K -66.47%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -15.34%E -1.23%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.13%EV -4.38%E -0.684%K -0.811%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-27 17:58
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 77.85%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.10I 8.26%NM 8.04%EV -18.05%E -1.49%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.10%EV +3.09%E +0.448%K +0.524%G +0.016%2.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.14%E -1.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 17:59
888sport1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:40
William Hill1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
888sport (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Mr Green (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (DE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.62%E -6.46%K -42.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +4.59%E +0.655%K +0.764%G +0.035%7.4%2026-02-27 17:58
Betway1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.06%E -5.05%K -30.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -18.73%E -1.56%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-27 17:57
Unibet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (NL)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Casumo1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Bally Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:40
Svenska Spel1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
BetMGM1.22I 81.97%NM 76.37%EV -4.49%E -3.68%K -20.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:00
Winamax (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.43%EV -8.41%E -7.18%K -49.44%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.98%EV -22.11%E -1.92%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV +0.850%E +0.126%K +0.148%G +0.001%9.0%2026-02-27 17:58
Marathon Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.04%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.29%EV -23.80%E -2.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.68%EV -5.13%E -0.807%K -0.958%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 18:13
Neds1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -2.92%E -2.36%K -12.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -14.09%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -5.27%E -4.36%K -25.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -25.50%E -2.32%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.36%E -1.73%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-02-27 18:40
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 81.08%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.02%1.9%2026-02-27 18:39