Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 6.50
assuming max odds 1.56
assuming max odds 4.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Famalicão (Local): 15.79%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 61.45%; Draw: 22.75%. For Famalicão (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.33. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.66%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.12%EV -7.20%E -4.77%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 19:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 19:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.05%E -6.11%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-13 19:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.63%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -13.35%E -9.47%K -32.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.42%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.37%EV -13.96%E -9.97%K -34.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-13 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.45%EV -1.45%E -0.232%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.74%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -2.08%E -0.335%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 19:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -2.08%E -0.335%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 19:11 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:56 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 19:11 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-13 19:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-13 19:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 18:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 19:21 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.66%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-13 19:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.50%E -7.99%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -6.82%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -12.41%E -3.22%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-13 18:41 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -6.82%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -12.41%E -3.22%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-13 18:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-13 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-13 18:41 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 18:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -5.36%E -3.48%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-13 18:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.33%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -5.58%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 19:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-13 19:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 18:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-13 18:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.75%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.61%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.75%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.61%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-13 18:41 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-13 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -11.50%E -7.99%K -26.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.26%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-13 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.84%EV -9.05%E -6.11%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -10.13%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 19:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 19:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -16.29%E -3.07%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -17.87%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -8.43%E -5.66%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 18:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.87% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.25% | 0.0% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-13 19:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-13 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.51% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 19:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52% | 2.1% | 2026-09-13 19:05 |