Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Famalicão v Sporting Lisbon

Início: 2026-09-13 19:34 UTC

Final: Famalicão 1–1 Sporting Lisbon

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Famalicão (Local)

Previsão 15.79%6.33odd justa
EV +2.66%
Vantagem +0.409%
Kelly +0.484%
Crescimento +0.013%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.25%15.75%15.75%17.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.205.936.006.5019.23%16.85%16.67%15.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visitante)

Previsão 61.45%1.63odd justa
EV -4.13%
Vantagem -2.65%
Kelly -7.38%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.56

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
60.52%61.49%61.51%64.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.401.501.501.5671.43%66.70%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 22.75%4.40odd justa
EV -2.17%
Vantagem -0.505%
Kelly -0.658%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.11%22.76%22.75%23.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.854.094.104.3025.97%24.45%24.39%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Famalicão (Local): 15.79%; Sporting Lisbon (Visitante): 61.45%; Empate: 22.75%. Para Famalicão (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.33. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.66%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.12%EV -7.20%E -4.77%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 19:20
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 18:50
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +2.66%E +0.409%K +0.484%G +0.013%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.05%E -6.11%K -18.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 19:24
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.63%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 19:25
TABtouch🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.37%EV -13.35%E -9.47%K -32.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.42%EV -1.29%E -0.206%K -0.245%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.37%EV -13.96%E -9.97%K -34.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-13 18:50
Pinnacle🎯6.24I 16.03%NM 15.45%EV -1.45%E -0.232%K -0.276%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.13%E -2.65%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.74%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -2.08%E -0.335%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 19:11
BetOnline.ag🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.17%EV -2.08%E -0.335%K -0.399%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.89%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 19:11
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:56
Casumo🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
Grosvenor🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
Bally Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
betPARX🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -3.66%E -0.599%K -0.717%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 18:55
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 19:11
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 18:55
Bovada🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 19:08
BetUS🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.31%E -0.778%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:40
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 19:21
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 19:25
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 18:40
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 19:25
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.66%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 19:20
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -5.24%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.50%E -7.99%K -26.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 19:25
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -6.82%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -12.41%E -3.22%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 18:41
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -6.82%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -12.41%E -3.22%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 18:30
Coral🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -4.74%E -3.06%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 18:41
Fanatics🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -2.17%E -0.505%K -0.658%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:39
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -5.36%E -3.48%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 18:30
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.33%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -5.58%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 19:15
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 19:25
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.08%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -6.59%E -4.33%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 19:20
betano_uk🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 18:39
Bet Victor🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 18:39
BetRivers🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.75%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.61%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.75%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.61%EV -9.66%E -6.57%K -20.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -9.18%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 18:41
Neds🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -5.97%E -3.90%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -11.55%E -2.06%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -11.50%E -7.99%K -26.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.26%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.84%EV -9.05%E -6.11%K -18.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -10.13%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -13.13%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -10.89%E -7.51%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.00%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -16.29%E -3.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -7.82%E -5.21%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.45%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -17.87%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -8.43%E -5.66%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 18:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.25%0.0%2026-09-13 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16%0.4%2026-09-13 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16%0.4%2026-09-13 19:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.16%0.4%2026-09-13 19:25
Smarkets◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%1.3%2026-09-13 19:20
Kalshi◎6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%2.1%2026-09-13 19:05