Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril v FC Porto

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:32 UTC

Final: Estoril 1–3 FC Porto

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 13.93%7.18fair odd
EV +11.45%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.54%13.86%13.99%15.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.067.008.0016.95%14.16%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Porto (Visit)

Prediction 65.71%1.52fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.10%65.95%65.51%69.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.401.5075.76%71.76%71.43%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.36%4.91fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.360%
Kelly +0.449%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.71%20.19%20.49%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.624.605.0025.00%21.64%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 13.93%; FC Porto (Visit): 65.71%; Draw: 20.36%. For Estoril (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.18. 24 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -9.32%E -6.75%K -24.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -9.32%E -6.75%K -24.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 19:30
TABtouch🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Bally Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
betPARX🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.99%EV +8.66%E +1.11%K +1.27%G +0.110%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV +1.80%E +0.360%K +0.449%G +0.008%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Pinnacle🎯7.74I 12.92%NM 12.43%EV +7.83%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.091%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.74%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -1.26%E -0.259%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 19:29
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -0.238%E -0.049%K -0.061%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 19:29
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:30
PMU (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LeoVegas🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.06%EV -13.26%E -10.05%K -41.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Coolbet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 19:28
Bovada🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:25
BetUS🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:29
Everygame🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.78%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.63%EV -8.66%E -6.23%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.63%EV -8.66%E -6.23%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.48%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.68%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.56%E -4.64%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-12 19:30
NordicBet🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -3.88%E -0.562%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -9.40%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Betsson🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -3.88%E -0.562%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -9.40%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.96%E -0.884%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.68%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -7.36%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -5.96%E -0.884%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 19:29
1xBet🎯6.61I 15.13%NM 14.68%EV -7.92%E -1.20%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -1.44%E -0.957%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.61%EV -4.11%E -0.872%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Unibet (FR)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.17%EV -8.05%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Marathon Bet🎯6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -8.75%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.13%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:29
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Fanatics🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV +1.80%E +0.360%K +0.449%G +0.008%5.8%2026-04-12 19:29
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -4.72%E -3.26%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 19:28
Bet Right🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
PlayUp🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:30
Bet Victor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 19:29
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.84%E -2.74%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 19:30
GTbets🎯6.28I 15.92%NM 14.77%EV -12.51%E -1.99%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.32%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 19.91%EV -5.12%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 19:29
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:30
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:29
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.32%EV -17.81%E -3.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.13%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Matchbook8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-04-12 19:30
Kalshi8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.88%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%3.0%2026-04-12 19:30
Smarkets8.00I 12.50%NM 12.13%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.84%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.03%3.0%2026-04-12 19:30