L’École des cotes

Estoril v FC Porto

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-12 19:32 UTC

Score final : Estoril 1–3 FC Porto

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Estoril (Local)

Prévision 13.93%7.18cote équitable
EV +11.45%
Avantage +1.43%
Kelly +1.64%
Croissance +0.187%

avec la cote maximale 8.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.54%13.86%13.99%15.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.907.067.008.0016.95%14.16%14.29%12.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FC Porto (Visiteur)

Prévision 65.71%1.52cote équitable
EV -1.44%
Avantage -0.957%
Kelly -2.87%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.10%65.95%65.51%69.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.391.401.5075.76%71.76%71.43%66.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.36%4.91cote équitable
EV +1.80%
Avantage +0.360%
Kelly +0.449%
Croissance +0.008%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.71%20.19%20.49%21.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.624.605.0025.00%21.64%21.74%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -9.32%E -6.75%K -24.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 19:30
ATG (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -9.32%E -6.75%K -24.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 19:30
TABtouch8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Grosvenor8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Casumo8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Bally Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
betPARX8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LiveScore Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Unibet (NL)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV +11.45%E +1.43%K +1.64%G +0.187%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Tipico (DE)7.80I 12.82%NM 11.99%EV +8.66%E +1.11%K +1.27%G +0.110%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -11.29%E -8.36%K -32.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV +1.80%E +0.360%K +0.449%G +0.008%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Pinnacle7.74I 12.92%NM 12.43%EV +7.83%E +1.01%K +1.16%G +0.091%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.74%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -1.26%E -0.259%K -0.326%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 19:29
FanDuel7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -0.238%E -0.049%K -0.061%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 19:29
SportsBet7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Paddy Power7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Virgin Bet7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:30
PMU (FR)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:30
LeoVegas7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV +4.48%E +0.598%K +0.690%G +0.031%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.06%EV -13.26%E -10.05%K -41.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:30
Coolbet7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 19:28
Bovada7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:25
BetUS7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -4.31%E -0.917%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:29
Everygame7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV +1.00%E +0.138%K +0.160%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.78%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Betr (AU)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
888sport7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
William Hill7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
888sport (SE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Mr Green (SE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:29
BetOnline.ag7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.63%EV -8.66%E -6.23%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:30
LowVig.ag7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.63%EV -8.66%E -6.23%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Sky Bet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -10.64%E -7.82%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 12.48%EV -2.48%E -0.355%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.68%EV -12.61%E -9.48%K -38.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -18.56%E -4.64%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-12 19:30
NordicBet6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -3.88%E -0.562%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -9.40%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Betsson6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -3.88%E -0.562%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -9.40%E -2.11%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Betclic (FR)6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -5.96%E -0.884%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.68%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -7.36%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:29
PointsBet (AU)6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -5.96%E -0.884%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 19:29
1xBet6.61I 15.13%NM 14.68%EV -7.92%E -1.20%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -1.44%E -0.957%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.61%EV -4.11%E -0.872%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 19:29
Unibet (FR)6.60I 15.15%NM 14.17%EV -8.05%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Marathon Bet6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -8.75%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.13%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:29
Coral6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Fanatics6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV +1.80%E +0.360%K +0.449%G +0.008%5.8%2026-04-12 19:29
Unibet (UK)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -4.72%E -3.26%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.35%E -1.38%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 19:28
Bet Right6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
PlayUp6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:29
DraftKings6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.72%EV -6.04%E -4.22%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 19:30
Bet Victor6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 19:29
BoyleSports6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.45%E -1.45%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.01%E -5.72%K -20.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.84%E -2.74%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 19:30
GTbets6.28I 15.92%NM 14.77%EV -12.51%E -1.99%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.32%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 19.91%EV -5.12%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 19:29
BetMGM6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -3.29%E -0.693%K -0.878%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 19:30
Winamax (DE)6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -6.69%E -4.71%K -15.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Winamax (FR)6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -12.93%E -2.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Neds6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.27%E -0.474%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 19:29
Betway6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -16.41%E -2.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -5.38%E -3.74%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.86%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 19:29
NetBet (FR)5.90I 16.95%NM 15.32%EV -17.81%E -3.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.13%EV -7.35%E -5.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -10.42%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-12 19:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-04-12 19:30
Matchbook8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-04-12 19:30
Kalshi8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.88%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%3.0%2026-04-12 19:30
Smarkets8.00I 12.50%NM 12.13%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.84%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.03%3.0%2026-04-12 19:30