L’École des cotesEstoril v Benfica
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Estoril (Local)
Prévision 11.59%8.63cote équitable
EV +7.48%
Avantage +0.807%
Kelly +0.904%
Croissance +0.068%
avec la cote maximale 9.27
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.13%11.55%11.70%13.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.507.897.909.2715.38%12.68%12.66%10.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Benfica (Visiteur)
Prévision 71.72%1.39cote équitable
EV -4.61%
Avantage -3.47%
Kelly -13.97%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.33
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.66%71.64%71.67%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.231.291.301.3381.30%77.42%76.92%75.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 16.68%5.99cote équitable
EV +3.61%
Avantage +0.581%
Kelly +0.693%
Croissance +0.025%
avec la cote maximale 6.21
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.62%16.81%16.63%19.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.425.506.2122.22%18.46%18.18%16.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 9.27I 10.79%NM 10.13%EV +7.48%E +0.807%K +0.904%G +0.068% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.68%EV -11.41%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Tipico (DE) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +4.35%E +0.483%K +0.543%G +0.024% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -3.23%E -0.557%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| 1xBet | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.90%EV +3.19%E +0.358%K +0.403%G +0.013% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.48%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 6.21I 16.10%NM 15.62%EV +3.61%E +0.581%K +0.693%G +0.025% | 3.1% | 2026-05-11 23:34 |
| Betclic (FR) | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.61%EV +1.45%E +0.165%K +0.187%G +0.003% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.52%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 23:48 |
| Coolbet | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -12.41%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 23:47 |
| NetBet (FR) | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -11.07%E -8.92%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-12 09:53 |
| Pinnacle | 8.36I 11.96%NM 11.25%EV -3.07%E -0.368%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.36%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.39%EV -4.23%E -0.737%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betr (AU) | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -4.35%E -0.527%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Coral | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.98%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.05%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.106%E +0.018%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| FanDuel | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.47%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV -1.56%E -0.265%K -0.319%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 08:03 |
| Fanatics | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-11 22:10 |
| Bet Right | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 00:05 |
| betfred_uk | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Paddy Power | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 22:05 |
| SportsBet | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| Everygame | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| Betsson | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -9.90%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| NordicBet | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -9.90%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.81%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.22%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.17%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.18%EV -11.07%E -8.92%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| BetMGM | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.10%EV -10.15%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.59%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.02%EV -11.89%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.02%EV -11.89%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| Neds | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| Betway | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-12 08:49 |
| 888sport | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| William Hill | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| 888sport (SE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.27%EV -15.94%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.62%EV -9.63%E -7.64%K -37.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -13.24%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| BoyleSports | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-11 22:09 |
| Sky Bet | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.35%E -8.28%K -41.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-12 09:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -10.35%E -8.28%K -41.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -24.92%E -5.54%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-11 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.04%EV -24.64%E -3.79%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 68.92%EV -11.78%E -9.58%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.04%EV -21.58%E -4.59%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (4)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Smarkets | 4.30I 23.26%NM 15.72% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 63.16% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 21.12% | 48.0% | 2026-05-11 22:49 |