La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Estoril v Benfica
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Estoril (Local)
Predicción 11.59%8.63momio equitativo
EV +7.48%
Ventaja +0.807%
Kelly +0.904%
Crecimiento +0.068%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.13%11.55%11.70%13.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.897.909.2715.38%12.68%12.66%10.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Benfica (Visitante)
Predicción 71.72%1.39momio equitativo
EV -4.61%
Ventaja -3.47%
Kelly -13.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.66%71.64%71.67%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.231.291.301.3381.30%77.42%76.92%75.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 16.68%5.99momio equitativo
EV +3.61%
Ventaja +0.581%
Kelly +0.693%
Crecimiento +0.025%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.21
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.62%16.81%16.63%19.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.425.506.2122.22%18.46%18.18%16.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 9.27I 10.79%NM 10.13%EV +7.48%E +0.807%K +0.904%G +0.068% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.68%EV -11.41%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Tipico (DE) | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +4.35%E +0.483%K +0.543%G +0.024% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.91%E -7.02%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -3.23%E -0.557%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| 1xBet | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.90%EV +3.19%E +0.358%K +0.403%G +0.013% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.48%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 6.21I 16.10%NM 15.62%EV +3.61%E +0.581%K +0.693%G +0.025% | 3.1% | 2026-05-11 23:34 |
| Betclic (FR) | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.61%EV +1.45%E +0.165%K +0.187%G +0.003% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.52%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 23:48 |
| Coolbet | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -12.41%E -2.36%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-11 23:47 |
| NetBet (FR) | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -1.45%E -0.171%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -11.07%E -8.92%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-12 09:53 |
| Pinnacle | 8.36I 11.96%NM 11.25%EV -3.07%E -0.368%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.36%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.39%EV -4.23%E -0.737%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-12 07:52 |
| Betr (AU) | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -4.35%E -0.527%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Coral | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.98%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.05%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.106%E +0.018%K +0.021%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -4.61%E -3.47%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| FanDuel | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.47%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV -1.56%E -0.265%K -0.319%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 08:03 |
| Fanatics | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-11 22:10 |
| Bet Right | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 00:05 |
| betfred_uk | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Paddy Power | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -7.48%E -5.80%K -25.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 22:05 |
| SportsBet | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-11 22:04 |
| Everygame | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -7.25%E -0.906%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| Betsson | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -9.90%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| NordicBet | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.84%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -9.90%E -1.83%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 07:43 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.81%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.22%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 09:54 |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.17%EV -8.41%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.18%EV -11.07%E -8.92%K -46.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| BetMGM | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.10%EV -10.15%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.59%EV -6.04%E -4.61%K -19.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -4.07%E -0.707%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 20:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.02%EV -11.89%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.02%EV -11.89%E -1.56%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -8.20%E -6.40%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| Neds | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.33%E -4.04%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| Betway | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.24%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-12 08:49 |
| 888sport | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| William Hill | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| 888sport (SE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.04%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-12 08:24 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.27%EV -15.94%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.62%EV -9.63%E -7.64%K -37.04%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -13.24%E -2.55%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
| BoyleSports | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -6.76%E -5.20%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-11 22:09 |
| Sky Bet | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.35%E -8.28%K -41.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -16.58%E -3.32%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-12 09:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -18.84%E -2.69%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 68.66%EV -10.35%E -8.28%K -41.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.07%EV -24.92%E -5.54%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-11 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.04%EV -24.64%E -3.79%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 68.92%EV -11.78%E -9.58%K -51.23%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.04%EV -21.58%E -4.59%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-11 23:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.40I 22.73%NM 16.78% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 60.51% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 22.71% | 35.5% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Smarkets | 4.30I 23.26%NM 15.72% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 63.16% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 21.12% | 48.0% | 2026-05-11 22:49 |