A Escola das Odds

Estoril v Benfica

Início: 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Final: Estoril 1–3 Benfica

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

59 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Estoril (Local)

Previsão 9.07%11.02odd justa
EV +8.86%
Vantagem +0.739%
Kelly +0.806%
Crescimento +0.071%

pressupondo odds máximas de 12.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
7.72%9.21%8.94%11.35%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
8.2510.2010.5012.0012.12%9.81%9.52%8.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Benfica (Visitante)

Previsão 76.62%1.31odd justa
EV -2.70%
Vantagem -2.12%
Kelly -9.98%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.27

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
73.19%76.51%76.72%79.23%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.06%81.97%78.74%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 14.31%6.99odd justa
EV +7.33%
Vantagem +0.977%
Kelly +1.13%
Crescimento +0.083%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.44%14.28%14.34%17.57%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.006.406.277.5020.00%15.62%15.95%13.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (59 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Sky Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.74%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +7.33%E +0.977%K +1.13%G +0.083%7.2%2026-05-16 19:15
Tipico (DE)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.03%E +0.421%K +0.489%G +0.015%7.0%2026-05-16 19:25
Pinnacle11.74I 8.52%NM 8.10%EV +6.51%E +0.554%K +0.606%G +0.039%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.30%EV +2.32%E +0.324%K +0.377%G +0.009%5.1%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:46
DraftKings10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
LowVig.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:36
BetOnline.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:35
SportsBet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 19:15
Paddy Power10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 19:15
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.35%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:15
Neds8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 18:40
Bovada11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetUS11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetMGM8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.06%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Everygame12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.55%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Winamax (DE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.51%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Marathon Bet10.75I 9.30%NM 8.68%EV -2.48%E -0.230%K -0.254%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -6.27%E -0.957%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Unibet (UK)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betr (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:41
Bet Right10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 18:41
Winamax (FR)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.27%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:25
GTbets10.65I 9.39%NM 8.83%EV -3.38%E -0.318%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.47%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:25
NordicBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:30
Betsson11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:40
NetBet (FR)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.39%EV -10.36%E -8.85%K -60.92%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.37%EV -9.85%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 19:25
1xBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.16%EV -2.70%E -2.12%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.43%EV -10.27%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 19:25
ATG (SE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:11
Svenska Spel11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:10
PointsBet (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:41
Betclic (FR)9.25I 10.81%NM 10.06%EV -16.08%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.05%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 19:24
betPARX10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:55
Casumo10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
Grosvenor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:53
Bally Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
BetRivers10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:11
TABtouch10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (FR)9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.34%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.70%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 19:25
PlayUp11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 18:41
Unibet (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (NL)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Unibet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Betway8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 19:20
betfred_uk10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 18:41
888sport10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
William Hill10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
888sport (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Mr Green (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:11
LiveScore Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:10
PMU (FR)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Virgin Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Bet Victor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:24
BoyleSports9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:30
LeoVegas10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.84%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -17.00%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 19:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -28.45%E -5.69%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 19:06
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Matchbook12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Smarkets12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.09%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.67%1.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Kalshi12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.25%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-05-16 19:25