L’École des cotes

Estoril v Benfica

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Score final : Estoril 1–3 Benfica

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Estoril (Local)

Prévision 9.07%11.02cote équitable
EV +8.86%
Avantage +0.739%
Kelly +0.806%
Croissance +0.071%

avec la cote maximale 12.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.72%9.21%8.94%11.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.2510.2010.5012.0012.12%9.81%9.52%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Benfica (Visiteur)

Prévision 76.62%1.31cote équitable
EV -2.70%
Avantage -2.12%
Kelly -9.98%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.27

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
73.19%76.51%76.72%79.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.06%81.97%78.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 14.31%6.99cote équitable
EV +7.33%
Avantage +0.977%
Kelly +1.13%
Croissance +0.083%

avec la cote maximale 7.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.44%14.28%14.34%17.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.006.406.277.5020.00%15.62%15.95%13.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Sky Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.74%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +7.33%E +0.977%K +1.13%G +0.083%7.2%2026-05-16 19:15
Tipico (DE)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.03%E +0.421%K +0.489%G +0.015%7.0%2026-05-16 19:25
Pinnacle11.74I 8.52%NM 8.10%EV +6.51%E +0.554%K +0.606%G +0.039%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.30%EV +2.32%E +0.324%K +0.377%G +0.009%5.1%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:46
DraftKings10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
LowVig.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:36
BetOnline.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:35
SportsBet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 19:15
Paddy Power10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 19:15
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.35%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:15
Neds8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 18:40
Bovada11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetUS11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetMGM8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.06%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Everygame12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.55%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Winamax (DE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.51%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Marathon Bet10.75I 9.30%NM 8.68%EV -2.48%E -0.230%K -0.254%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -6.27%E -0.957%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Unibet (UK)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betr (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:41
Bet Right10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 18:41
Winamax (FR)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.27%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:25
GTbets10.65I 9.39%NM 8.83%EV -3.38%E -0.318%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.47%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:25
NordicBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:30
Betsson11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:40
NetBet (FR)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.39%EV -10.36%E -8.85%K -60.92%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.37%EV -9.85%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 19:25
1xBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.16%EV -2.70%E -2.12%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.43%EV -10.27%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 19:25
ATG (SE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:11
Svenska Spel11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:10
PointsBet (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:41
Betclic (FR)9.25I 10.81%NM 10.06%EV -16.08%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.05%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 19:24
betPARX10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:55
Casumo10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
Grosvenor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:53
Bally Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
BetRivers10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:11
TABtouch10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (FR)9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.34%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.70%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 19:25
PlayUp11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 18:41
Unibet (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (NL)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Unibet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Betway8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 19:20
betfred_uk10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 18:41
888sport10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
William Hill10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
888sport (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Mr Green (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:11
LiveScore Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:10
PMU (FR)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Virgin Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Bet Victor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:24
BoyleSports9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:30
LeoVegas10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.84%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -17.00%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 19:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -28.45%E -5.69%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 19:06
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Matchbook12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Smarkets12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.09%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.67%1.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Kalshi12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.25%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-05-16 19:25