La escuela de los momios

Estoril v Benfica

Inicio: 2026-05-16 19:30 UTC

Final: Estoril 1–3 Benfica

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Estoril (Local)

Predicción 9.07%11.02momio equitativo
EV +8.86%
Ventaja +0.739%
Kelly +0.806%
Crecimiento +0.071%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.72%9.21%8.94%11.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.2510.2010.5012.0012.12%9.81%9.52%8.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Benfica (Visitante)

Predicción 76.62%1.31momio equitativo
EV -2.70%
Ventaja -2.12%
Kelly -9.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.19%76.51%76.72%79.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.171.221.221.2785.47%82.06%81.97%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.31%6.99momio equitativo
EV +7.33%
Ventaja +0.977%
Kelly +1.13%
Crecimiento +0.083%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.44%14.28%14.34%17.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.006.406.277.5020.00%15.62%15.95%13.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.74%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +7.33%E +0.977%K +1.13%G +0.083%7.2%2026-05-16 19:15
Tipico (DE)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.03%E +0.421%K +0.489%G +0.015%7.0%2026-05-16 19:25
Pinnacle11.74I 8.52%NM 8.10%EV +6.51%E +0.554%K +0.606%G +0.039%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.30%EV +2.32%E +0.324%K +0.377%G +0.009%5.1%2026-05-16 19:25
Fanatics11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 18:46
DraftKings10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 18:35
LowVig.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:36
BetOnline.ag9.40I 10.64%NM 10.01%EV -14.72%E -1.57%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.54%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 18:35
SportsBet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 19:15
Paddy Power10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 19:15
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.35%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +0.171%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 19:15
Neds8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -25.16%E -3.05%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -2.69%E -0.396%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.28%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.08%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 18:40
Bovada11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetUS11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:30
BetMGM8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.06%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:35
Everygame12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV +8.86%E +0.739%K +0.806%G +0.071%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.55%EV -9.59%E -8.13%K -53.28%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Winamax (DE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.51%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.592%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Marathon Bet10.75I 9.30%NM 8.68%EV -2.48%E -0.230%K -0.254%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.08%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -6.27%E -0.957%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Unibet (UK)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:25
Betr (AU)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:41
Bet Right10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 18:41
Winamax (FR)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.27%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -6.98%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 19:25
GTbets10.65I 9.39%NM 8.83%EV -3.38%E -0.318%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.47%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 19:25
NordicBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:30
Betsson11.50I 8.70%NM 8.13%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.26%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.61%EV -8.41%E -1.31%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:40
NetBet (FR)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.39%EV -10.36%E -8.85%K -60.92%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.37%EV -9.85%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-16 19:25
1xBet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +4.33%E +0.376%K +0.412%G +0.018%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.16%EV -2.70%E -2.12%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.43%EV -10.27%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 19:25
ATG (SE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:11
Svenska Spel11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 19:10
PointsBet (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:41
Betclic (FR)9.25I 10.81%NM 10.06%EV -16.08%E -1.74%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.05%EV -4.99%E -4.03%K -20.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -10.56%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 19:24
betPARX10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:55
Casumo10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
Grosvenor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:53
Bally Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -5.76%E -4.68%K -25.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:52
BetRivers10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:11
TABtouch10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (FR)9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.34%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.70%EV -12.71%E -2.08%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 19:25
PlayUp11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -0.207%E -0.019%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 18:41
Unibet (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:10
Unibet (NL)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Unibet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 19:11
Betway8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -22.89%E -2.69%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -4.23%E -3.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 19:20
betfred_uk10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 18:41
888sport10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
William Hill10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
888sport (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
Mr Green (SE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.28%E -0.928%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:11
LiveScore Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -7.29%E -6.03%K -34.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 19:10
PMU (FR)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Virgin Bet10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:10
Bet Victor10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 19:24
BoyleSports9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -18.35%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.53%E -5.35%K -29.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 18:30
LeoVegas10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -4.74%E -0.452%K -0.499%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.84%EV -8.82%E -7.42%K -46.45%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -17.00%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 19:11
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -13.82%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -8.06%E -6.72%K -40.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -28.45%E -5.69%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 19:06
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Matchbook12.50I 8.00%NM 7.96%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.60%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%0.5%2026-05-16 19:25
Smarkets12.00I 8.33%NM 8.24%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.09%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.67%1.2%2026-05-16 19:25
Kalshi12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.25%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85%1.3%2026-05-16 19:25