The School of Odds

CS Maritimo v Casa Pia

2026-08-08 14:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

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Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CS Maritimo (Local)

Prediction 34.97%2.86fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.41%34.97%35.03%35.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.582.622.7043%39%38%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Casa Pia (Visit)

Prediction 38.44%2.60fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.25%38.44%38.27%39.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.372.392.5047%42%42%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -6.94%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.93%26.59%26.70%27.28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.453.5031%29%29%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -5.59%E -2.07%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -3.89%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 17:25
SportsBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.34%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.81%E -2.37%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 17:26
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.34%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.81%E -2.37%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 17:24
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -7.34%E -2.77%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -5.81%E -2.37%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 35.12%EV -8.04%E -3.06%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.49%EV -7.74%E -3.22%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 17:25
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.39%E -3.20%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.74%E -3.22%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 17:25
Betclic (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.68%EV -8.39%E -3.20%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.99%EV -10.43%E -4.48%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 17:24
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -9.09%E -3.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.51%E -3.57%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 17:25
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -10.83%E -4.25%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -13.50%E -6.00%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-25 17:25
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -12.58%E -5.03%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.25%EV -8.51%E -3.57%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-25 17:25
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -14.33%E -5.85%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.61%EV -13.50%E -6.00%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.93%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-25 17:28
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 35.37%EV -17.83%E -7.59%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 38.66%EV -17.35%E -8.07%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.97%EV -14.91%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%20.3%2026-07-25 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 34.73%2.24I 44.64%NM 38.14%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.12%17.0%2026-07-25 17:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-25 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-25 17:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-07-25 17:25