Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CS Maritimo v Benfica

2026-09-05 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CS Maritimo (Local)

Prediction 9.62%10.39fair odd
EV +5.87%
Edge +0.534%
Kelly +0.587%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.46%9.73%9.53%11.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.559.5011.0012.90%10.48%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 72.93%1.37fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -4.00%
Kelly -17.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.67%72.85%72.86%75.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.261.3081.97%79.03%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.45%5.73fair odd
EV -0.535%
Edge -0.094%
Kelly -0.114%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.45%17.42%17.60%18.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.245.285.7020.20%19.07%18.96%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CS Maritimo (Local): 9.62%; Benfica (Visit): 72.93%; Draw: 17.45%. For CS Maritimo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.39. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.87%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.55%EV -0.535%E -0.094%K -0.114%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 12:35
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.02%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.45%EV -0.535%E -0.094%K -0.114%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 12:35
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 12:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 12:40
Bet Right🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.83%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -8.39%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 12:29
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -3.75%E -0.375%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.93%E -4.59%K -20.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 13:00
betfred_uk🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -3.75%E -0.375%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 12:29
GTbets🎯9.83I 10.17%NM 9.67%EV -5.39%E -0.548%K -0.610%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.29%EV -6.66%E -5.20%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.04%EV +3.48%E +0.587%K +0.706%G +0.025%5.2%2026-08-31 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.52%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.88%EV -6.66%E -5.20%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.79%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.79%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 13:05
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Bally Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
betPARX🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.70%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -8.39%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 12:29
BoyleSports🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 12:35
Betclic (FR)🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 9.83%EV -10.97%E -1.19%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.33%EV -9.57%E -7.72%K -39.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV -5.77%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 12:30
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
TABtouch🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Sky Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -11.03%E -9.04%K -50.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 10.55%EV -20.11%E -2.42%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.76%EV -11.03%E -9.04%K -50.14%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.69%EV -13.62%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -23.00%E -2.88%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -9.57%E -7.72%K -39.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -5.77%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.38%EV -25.41%E -3.28%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.67%EV -10.30%E -8.38%K -44.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.95%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50