Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

CS Maritimo v Benfica

2026-09-05 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Résultat du match

34 opérateurs (9 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

CS Maritimo (Local)

Prévision 9.62%10.39cote équitable
EV +5.87%
Avantage +0.534%
Kelly +0.587%
Croissance +0.035%

avec la cote maximale 11.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.46%9.73%9.53%11.38%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
7.759.559.5011.0012.90%10.48%10.53%9.09%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Benfica (Visiteur)

Prévision 72.93%1.37cote équitable
EV -5.20%
Avantage -4.00%
Kelly -17.32%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
71.67%72.85%72.86%75.02%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.221.271.261.3081.97%79.03%79.37%76.92%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 17.45%5.73cote équitable
EV -0.535%
Avantage -0.094%
Kelly -0.114%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.45%17.42%17.60%18.21%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.955.245.285.7020.20%19.07%18.96%17.54%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : CS Maritimo (Local) : 9.62% ; Benfica (Visiteur) : 72.93% ; Match nul : 17.45%. Pour CS Maritimo (Local), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 10.39. 6 opérateurs proposent une cote supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure cote disponible est 11.00, pour une espérance positive de +5.87%.

Cotes des opérateurs (34 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
FanDuel🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.87%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.55%EV -0.535%E -0.094%K -0.114%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 12:35
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.02%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.45%EV -0.535%E -0.094%K -0.114%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 12:35
Paddy Power🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 12:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 12:40
Bet Right🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV +5.87%E +0.534%K +0.587%G +0.035%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.83%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -8.39%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 12:29
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -3.75%E -0.375%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -5.93%E -4.59%K -20.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 13:00
betfred_uk🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -3.75%E -0.375%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -4.03%E -0.732%K -0.895%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 12:29
GTbets🎯9.83I 10.17%NM 9.53%EV -5.39%E -0.548%K -0.610%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.21%EV -6.66%E -5.20%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.26%EV -5.25%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.52%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.88%EV -6.66%E -5.20%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.79%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 13:05
BetOnline.ag🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -5.68%E -0.579%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.79%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 13:05
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
ATG (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Bally Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
betPARX🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.35%EV -5.20%E -4.00%K -17.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -7.52%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.70%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -8.39%E -1.60%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 12:29
BoyleSports🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -8.56%E -0.901%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.38%EV -8.84%E -7.07%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 12:35
Betclic (FR)🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 9.83%EV -10.97%E -1.19%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.33%EV -9.57%E -7.72%K -39.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV -5.77%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 12:30
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
TABtouch🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.68%EV -7.39%E -5.81%K -27.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.84%EV -8.11%E -6.44%K -31.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 08:20
Sky Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -13.38%E -1.49%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -11.03%E -9.04%K -50.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -12.75%E -2.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 10.55%EV -20.11%E -2.42%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.76%EV -11.03%E -9.04%K -50.14%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.69%EV -13.62%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-31 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -23.00%E -2.88%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -9.57%E -7.72%K -39.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -5.77%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-31 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.38%EV -25.41%E -3.28%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.67%EV -10.30%E -8.38%K -44.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.95%EV -9.26%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 12:29
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-31 12:50