The School of Odds
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Braga v Famalicão

2026-11-01 20:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 54.94%1.82fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -5.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.03%54.95%55.01%56.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.691.681.7563.69%59.28%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 19.24%5.20fair odd
EV +1.00%
Edge +0.191%
Kelly +0.236%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.79%19.14%19.25%21.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.764.805.2524.39%21.00%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.03%25.91%25.74%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.7530.77%28.43%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Braga (Local): 54.94%; Famalicão (Visit): 19.24%; Draw: 25.82%. For Famalicão (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.20. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.18%E -0.848%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.37%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -8.79%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.27%EV -8.79%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 20:50
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV +0.042%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 18:25
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 21:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.18%E -0.848%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 18:42
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.05%EV -5.50%E -3.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.01%EV -4.19%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -5.76%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 19:33
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:59
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:59
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.70%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.26%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 20:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.72%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.70%EV -6.54%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 18:44
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.50%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 20:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.82%EV -10.44%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -11.50%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.75%EV -10.41%E -3.00%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 18:20
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.34%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 20:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.03%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -15.35%E -3.49%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.80%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 53.98%EV -13.74%E -8.75%K -24.10%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.94%EV -18.23%E -4.29%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.08%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-25 18:16
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -9.89%E -6.03%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -19.20%E -4.57%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-25 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.23%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.03%EV -21.12%E -5.15%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-25 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.24%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%9.2%2026-10-25 21:30
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 53.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%13.3%2026-10-25 20:40