The School of Odds
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Braga v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC

Final: Braga 3–0 Famalicão

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 54.51%1.83fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.98%54.55%54.53%57.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.681.701.7764.52%59.63%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 19.80%5.05fair odd
EV +8.92%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.177%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.18%19.79%19.78%21.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.814.755.5025.00%20.78%21.05%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.384%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.52%25.66%25.69%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.603.8529.41%27.64%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 54.51%; Famalicão (Visit): 19.80%; Draw: 25.69%. For Famalicão (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.05. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.96%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV +8.92%E +1.62%K +1.98%G +0.177%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -2.38%E -0.626%K -0.850%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:10
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:10
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:05
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.59%EV -11.15%E -6.84%K -17.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV +6.94%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.109%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 09:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -12.79%E -7.99%K -21.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV +2.98%E +0.573%K +0.709%G +0.021%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 09:05
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.70%EV -3.52%E -1.99%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.91%EV +1.39%E +0.272%K +0.338%G +0.005%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.38%EV -5.72%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-01 20:15
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.34%EV -14.42%E -9.19%K -25.30%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.65%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 09:05
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.34%EV -14.42%E -9.19%K -25.30%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.65%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 09:05
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -14.97%E -9.60%K -26.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -14.97%E -9.60%K -26.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 09:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.50%EV -14.97%E -9.60%K -26.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.30%EV -14.97%E -9.60%K -26.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV +0.997%E +0.195%K +0.243%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -8.80%E -2.48%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-01 09:05
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.79%E -3.97%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -0.984%E -0.197%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 20:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -8.97%E -5.37%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -0.984%E -0.197%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 20:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.05%EV -15.51%E -10.01%K -28.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -0.984%E -0.197%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-11-01 09:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.61%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -2.96%E -0.605%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%EV -4.61%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.38%EV -2.96%E -0.605%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 20:10
Bovada🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV -2.96%E -0.605%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -8.80%E -2.48%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 20:15
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -2.96%E -0.605%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -11.37%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 20:10
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -6.79%E -3.97%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -2.96%E -0.605%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 20:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.37%EV -5.16%E -2.96%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -4.94%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -6.23%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-01 20:10
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.38%E -0.626%K -0.850%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.25%E -3.63%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 20:10
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 20:20
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.39%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.44%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 20:10
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 20:00
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 19:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 20:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -5.93%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 20:15
Bet Right🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -7.88%E -4.66%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -6.92%E -1.47%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 20:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.61%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -8.90%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.61%E -2.64%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -8.90%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 19:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.78%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.90%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.99%EV -8.03%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 20:20
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.56%EV -5.16%E -2.96%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.78%EV -9.50%E -2.08%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -1.10%E -0.285%K -0.384%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 20:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -5.16%E -2.96%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 19:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 19:40
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.95%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -3.66%E -0.977%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 19:58
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.25%E -3.63%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 20:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.25%E -3.63%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 20:10
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 20:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.97%E -5.37%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-01 19:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.01%EV -12.24%E -7.60%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -13.88%E -8.78%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.62%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 20:07
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.25%E -3.63%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -12.87%E -2.92%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 20:15
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.25%E -3.63%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -12.87%E -2.92%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.52%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 20:10
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -12.87%E -2.92%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 20:24
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -5.70%E -3.30%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -12.87%E -2.92%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 20:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.18%EV -15.51%E -10.01%K -28.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.66%EV -13.86%E -3.19%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.16%EV -12.66%E -3.72%K -5.27%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-01 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -7.34%E -4.32%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -16.83%E -4.01%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -6.23%E -1.71%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.04%EV -10.61%E -6.47%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -20.79%E -5.20%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.21%EV -11.37%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-01 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.63%0.1%2026-11-01 20:25
Matchbook◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.63%0.1%2026-11-01 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-11-01 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-11-01 20:25
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.38%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-11-01 20:10
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.38%1.1%2026-11-01 20:25

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