Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga v Famalicão

2026-11-01 20:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga (Local)

Predicción 54.94%1.82momio equitativo
EV -3.85%
Ventaja -2.20%
Kelly -5.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.03%54.95%55.01%56.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.691.681.7563.69%59.28%59.52%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Famalicão (Visitante)

Predicción 19.24%5.20momio equitativo
EV +1.00%
Ventaja +0.191%
Kelly +0.236%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.79%19.14%19.25%21.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.764.805.2524.39%21.00%20.83%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.82%3.87momio equitativo
EV -3.18%
Ventaja -0.848%
Kelly -1.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.03%25.91%25.74%26.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.523.503.7530.77%28.43%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Braga (Local): 54.94%; Famalicão (Visitante): 19.24%; Empate: 25.82%. Para Famalicão (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.20. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.00%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.18%E -0.848%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.37%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -8.79%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.27%EV -8.79%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +1.00%E +0.191%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 20:50
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV +0.042%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 18:25
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 21:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.18%E -0.848%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 18:42
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 18:20
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -3.81%E -0.761%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.05%EV -5.50%E -3.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.01%EV -4.19%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -5.76%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 19:33
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:50
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:59
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:59
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.70%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.26%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 20:50
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.72%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.70%EV -6.54%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 18:44
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -8.62%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.50%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-25 20:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.82%EV -10.44%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -11.50%E -2.50%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.75%EV -10.41%E -3.00%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 18:20
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-25 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.34%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.43%E -2.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 20:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.03%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -15.35%E -3.49%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.80%E -4.48%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-25 20:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 53.98%EV -13.74%E -8.75%K -24.10%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.94%EV -18.23%E -4.29%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.08%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-25 18:16
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -9.89%E -6.03%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -19.20%E -4.57%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -10.93%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-25 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.23%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.03%EV -21.12%E -5.15%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.74%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-25 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.24%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%9.2%2026-10-25 21:30
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 53.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%13.3%2026-10-25 20:40