Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga v Estoril

Início: 2026-09-14 19:45 UTC

Final: Braga 1–0 Estoril

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga (Local)

Previsão 67.50%1.48odd justa
EV -4.15%
Vantagem -2.92%
Kelly -9.88%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.90%67.42%67.48%69.16%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.61%72.46%70.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Estoril (Visitante)

Previsão 12.01%8.32odd justa
EV +5.97%
Vantagem +0.676%
Kelly +0.763%
Crescimento +0.046%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.92%12.03%12.02%13.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.807.667.508.8214.71%13.06%13.33%11.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 20.49%4.88odd justa
EV -0.645%
Vantagem -0.133%
Kelly -0.167%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.51%20.55%20.50%22.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.154.554.504.8524.10%22.00%22.22%20.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Braga (Local): 67.50%; Estoril (Visitante): 12.01%; Empate: 20.49%. Para Estoril (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 8.32. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.82, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.97%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.29%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.77%G +0.000%8.82I 11.34%NM 10.92%EV +5.97%E +0.676%K +0.763%G +0.046%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.80%EV -5.15%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 19:31
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.07%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV +2.12%E +0.250%K +0.283%G +0.006%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.60%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.47%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.93%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.53%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:38
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 19:21
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 19:16
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.13%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.45%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-14 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 19:30
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 19:40
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.42%EV -4.15%E -2.92%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.87I 12.71%NM 12.17%EV -5.45%E -0.692%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.41%EV -3.92%E -0.836%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-14 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 19:10
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -14.98%E -3.61%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:31
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:29
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.10%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.99%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 19:30
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.90%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.64%EV -12.30%E -1.68%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.01%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -10.89%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-14 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 19:40
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 18:50
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.85%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.72%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.96%EV -17.10%E -2.48%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.76%EV -10.22%E -7.69%K -30.98%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.06%EV -18.30%E -2.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 19:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.48%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.41%0.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:35
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%1.9%2026-09-14 19:40