Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Braga v Estoril

2026-09-14 19:45 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Braga (Local)

Prévision 61.31%1.63cote équitable
EV -4.97%
Avantage -3.21%
Kelly -9.04%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.72%61.19%61.10%62.55%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.471.511.501.5568.03%66.38%66.67%64.52%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Estoril (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.10%6.21cote équitable
EV -3.40%
Avantage -0.567%
Kelly -0.680%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 6.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.54%16.23%16.09%18.78%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.605.625.656.0021.74%17.81%17.70%16.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 22.59%4.43cote équitable
EV -0.594%
Avantage -0.135%
Kelly -0.175%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.40%22.59%22.80%23.69%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.754.044.004.4026.67%24.75%25.00%22.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : Braga (Local) : 61.31% ; Estoril (Visiteur) : 16.10% ; Match nul : 22.59%. Pour Match nul, cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 4.43. Aucun opérateur admissible ne propose de cote supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure cote disponible est 4.40, pour une espérance de -0.594% ; elle ne produit pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -4.97%E -3.21%K -9.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -15.47%E -2.95%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 19:45
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.39%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%EV -0.594%E -0.135%K -0.175%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:45
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:45
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:50
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:50
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 19:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.92%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.54%EV -10.53%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 20:44
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.11%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 20:44
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.38%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -6.62%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 19:54
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -7.42%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -7.42%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -7.42%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 19:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.23%EV -6.81%E -4.48%K -13.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.77%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -2.85%E -0.664%K -0.865%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 20:45
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.72%EV -6.81%E -4.48%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.46%EV -8.23%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.85%E -0.664%K -0.865%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:44
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.88%EV -7.43%E -4.92%K -14.56%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -8.23%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -2.85%E -0.664%K -0.865%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 20:45
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.40%E -0.567%K -0.680%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.85%E -0.664%K -0.865%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -2.18%E -0.502%K -0.653%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 20:44
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.11%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 19:15
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 19:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.55%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -15.47%E -2.95%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 19:29
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -19.50%E -3.90%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-07 20:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.68%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%EV -9.84%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 19:45
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.68%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%EV -9.84%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 19:50
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.68%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.14%EV -9.84%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 19:50
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 19:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.02%EV -8.65%E -5.81%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -24.33%E -5.18%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -10.76%E -2.72%K -3.65%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-07 19:30
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -5.01%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -6.24%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 19:55
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -5.01%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -6.24%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 19:54
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -7.42%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.66%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.45%E -2.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%EV -11.89%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.72%EV -9.26%E -6.26%K -19.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.11%EV -22.72%E -4.73%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -15.28%E -4.07%K -5.56%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-07 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.78%EV -9.88%E -6.72%K -21.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.78%EV -25.94%E -5.64%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.44%EV -13.02%E -3.38%K -4.57%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-07 19:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 58.97%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.98%13.0%2026-09-07 19:45
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 43.35%5.88I 17.01%NM 11.21%1.45I 68.97%NM 45.44%51.8%2026-09-07 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.16%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%176.2%2026-09-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.16%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%176.2%2026-09-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-09-07 14:40