Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Braga v Estoril

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-14 19:45 UTC

Score final : Braga 1–0 Estoril

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Braga (Local)

Prévision 67.50%1.48cote équitable
EV -4.15%
Avantage -2.92%
Kelly -9.88%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.90%67.42%67.48%69.16%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.61%72.46%70.42%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Estoril (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.01%8.32cote équitable
EV +5.97%
Avantage +0.676%
Kelly +0.763%
Croissance +0.046%

avec la cote maximale 8.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.92%12.03%12.02%13.06%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
6.807.667.508.8214.71%13.06%13.33%11.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 20.49%4.88cote équitable
EV -0.645%
Avantage -0.133%
Kelly -0.167%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.51%20.55%20.50%22.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.154.554.504.8524.10%22.00%22.22%20.62%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Braga (Local) : 67.50% ; Estoril (Visiteur) : 12.01% ; Match nul : 20.49%. Pour Estoril (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 8.32. 5 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 8.82, soit une espérance positive de +5.97%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.29%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.77%G +0.000%8.82I 11.34%NM 10.92%EV +5.97%E +0.676%K +0.763%G +0.046%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.80%EV -5.15%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 19:31
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.07%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV +2.12%E +0.250%K +0.283%G +0.006%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.60%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.47%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.93%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.53%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:38
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 19:21
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 19:16
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.13%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.45%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-14 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 19:30
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 19:40
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.42%EV -4.15%E -2.92%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.87I 12.71%NM 12.17%EV -5.45%E -0.692%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.41%EV -3.92%E -0.836%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-14 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 19:10
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -14.98%E -3.61%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:31
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:29
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.10%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.99%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 19:30
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.90%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.64%EV -12.30%E -1.68%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.01%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -10.89%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-14 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 19:40
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 18:50
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.85%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.72%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.96%EV -17.10%E -2.48%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.76%EV -10.22%E -7.69%K -30.98%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.06%EV -18.30%E -2.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 19:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.48%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.41%0.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:35
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%1.9%2026-09-14 19:40