Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga v Estoril

Inicio: 2026-09-14 19:45 UTC

Final: Braga 1–0 Estoril

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga (Local)

Predicción 67.50%1.48momio equitativo
EV -4.15%
Ventaja -2.92%
Kelly -9.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.90%67.42%67.48%69.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.61%72.46%70.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Estoril (Visitante)

Predicción 12.01%8.32momio equitativo
EV +5.97%
Ventaja +0.676%
Kelly +0.763%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.92%12.03%12.02%13.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.807.667.508.8214.71%13.06%13.33%11.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.49%4.88momio equitativo
EV -0.645%
Ventaja -0.133%
Kelly -0.167%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.51%20.55%20.50%22.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.154.554.504.8524.10%22.00%22.22%20.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Braga (Local): 67.50%; Estoril (Visitante): 12.01%; Empate: 20.49%. Para Estoril (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.32. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.82, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.97%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.29%EV -4.82%E -3.42%K -11.77%G +0.000%8.82I 11.34%NM 10.92%EV +5.97%E +0.676%K +0.763%G +0.046%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.80%EV -5.15%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-14 19:31
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.16%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 11.16%EV +2.72%E +0.318%K +0.361%G +0.010%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68%EV -0.645%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 11:21
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.07%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV +2.12%E +0.250%K +0.283%G +0.006%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.60%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.47%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.93%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.53%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%EV -0.882%E -0.107%K -0.122%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:38
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.05%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 19:21
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 19:16
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.13%EV -6.17%E -4.44%K -15.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.45%EV -6.85%E -4.96%K -18.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.92%EV -8.84%E -1.99%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-14 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 19:30
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.89%E -0.486%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 19:40
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.42%EV -4.15%E -2.92%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.87I 12.71%NM 12.17%EV -5.45%E -0.692%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.41%EV -3.92%E -0.836%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-14 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.16%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.97%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.72%E -0.791%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 19:10
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -6.29%E -0.806%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -14.98%E -3.61%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-14 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -1.67%E -0.348%K -0.439%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:31
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:35
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:29
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -11.30%E -2.61%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.10%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.99%EV -9.89%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 19:30
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.90%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.64%EV -12.30%E -1.68%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -11.91%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -2.69%E -0.567%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 19:00
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.01%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.75%EV -12.90%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -10.89%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -5.77%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-14 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -8.20%E -6.03%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 19:40
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.99%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -7.81%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 18:50
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -8.87%E -6.57%K -25.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.85%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -15.90%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-14 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.72%EV -9.55%E -7.13%K -28.09%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.96%EV -17.10%E -2.48%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.76%EV -10.22%E -7.69%K -30.98%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.06%EV -18.30%E -2.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -9.86%E -2.24%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.48%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.41%0.0%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74%0.4%2026-09-14 19:40
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Matchbook◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-14 19:35
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%1.9%2026-09-14 19:40