Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga v Arouca

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Final: Braga 1–0 Arouca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 65.36%1.53fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.13%65.37%65.41%67.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.30%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arouca (Visit)

Prediction 13.75%7.27fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +0.543%
Kelly +0.626%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 7.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.58%13.77%13.69%16.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.787.007.5717.24%14.76%14.29%13.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV +0.266%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.070%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.15%20.86%20.90%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.434.454.8026.67%22.60%22.47%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 65.36%; Arouca (Visit): 13.75%; Draw: 20.89%. For Arouca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.27. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.40%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.72%EV +4.11%E +0.543%K +0.626%G +0.026%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.88%EV -3.70%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -0.779%E -0.164%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.50%EV -1.96%E -1.31%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 13.31%EV -0.012%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.19%EV -8.93%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.85%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:54
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.85%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.99%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.16%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -0.975%E -0.135%K -0.157%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 16:30
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:51
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:51
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:47
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:52
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:51
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:53
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:51
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 16:53
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.40%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -7.16%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:55
GTbets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.54%EV -2.62%E -1.76%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.34%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.12%EV -10.60%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 16:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -9.91%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.97%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:15
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.85%EV -2.87%E -0.617%K -0.786%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:50
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 16:34
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:30
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.62%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -21.67%E -5.78%K -7.88%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-12 16:30
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.14%EV -9.15%E -6.58%K -23.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.71%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV +0.266%E +0.055%K +0.070%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:35
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.45%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.17%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.37%0.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 67.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%1.1%2026-04-12 16:55
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.46%1.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.40%3.0%2026-04-12 16:30